MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE BROADER DATA SETS OFFER A BETTER GUIDANCE FOR MOVING INTO END OF JULY 2022

The outlook period is still quite uncertain with a few upper-level mechanics that need to be ironed out in the coming days which will then have downstream impacts on future weather systems moving out of the west of the nation. These systems may help to push out the block, but there is uncertainty about the blocking pattern in the NZ region and the impacts over the east of the nation.


Bottom line, looking into the medium range is more useful at the moment to see if there is some agreement that a more mobile pressure pattern resumes and thus sees the rainfall become more widespread across the nation via more traditional weather patterns.


I have outlined the influence on the blocking pattern today here


Let's look at the latest weather information for the medium term taking us through from the 25th of July through to August 2nd, 2022.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 35 members) - VERY LOW CHANCE

The moisture hangs around over parts of the QLD and NSW coast in onshore winds and the trough and low pressure offshore. There is some members in the current pack suggesting a broad rain event developing over inland NSW and VIC with a low but that is not a high confidence feature, just worth watching out for. The weather in the west a little below average in terms of rainfall and dry through the inland.

CMC - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE.

The rainfall along the east coast may continue in onshore winds with the moisture lagging back too - there is moisture also set to develop through the interior and we are starting to see numbers creeping up a tad over the southeast and southern coastal areas with seasonal rainfall over the SWLD of WA.

EURO - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 51 members) MODERATE CHANCE

The latest Euro trying to increase the rainfall coverage from the west through this period and you can see the larger plume coming in further north up the WA coast, that is good news for areas down the line, especially if frontal weather can get its act together. Lurking low pressure offshore NSW will keep the showers going for the coast, but the blocking pattern should be further towards the east. The rainfall over the Coral Sea is really excessive and if that remains that way into Spring, the prevailing winds shift direction, and we could see that transported over the north and east of the nation through the months ahead.

LONG TERM TRENDS!!! THESE ARE TRENDS AND NOT GOSPEL!

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The trends are for the rainfall to continue to increase through August and noting that the moisture over the east of the nation is excessive, rainfall totals over southern Australia are also increasing dramatically and spreading through the jet stream. We just need the blocking pattern to move on by. Also noting the tropics getting a little moisture too! That could be picking up on the early Wet Season potential!

More coming up from 5am EST with the early bird edition for those who are mad like me to get up that early!