MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE BROADER DATA SETS ARE NOW SETTLING ON THE EAST COAST EVENT.

But what about the rainfall for the rest of the nation? Are we set to see the rainfall return to the west and south of the country with a more traditional Winter set up to emerge later next week?


Medium term modelling has been supportive of the weather shifting back to seasonal expectations following a dry spell for larger areas of the nation's interior and west.


Let's see what we can find beyond the major rainfall event which is forecast to impact large areas of the east and north of the country in the coming days which is building in forecast confidence of delivering areas decile 8 rainfall for this time of year.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall numbers becoming more extensive for NSW and QLD with this system with rainfall also spreading back into the interior of NSW and QLD as well with well above average rainfall expected. The showers will return to the southern parts of the nation in line with the development of the westerly wind belt which will eventually clear the east coast of the rain and thunderstorms that are expected this weekend.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Rainfall very heavy for this time of year along parts of the coast and numbers are increasing in the presence of low pressure this weekend and into next week before we see a more typical wintertime pattern emerge, clearing the east with showers developing for southern Australia and back over in the west.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - LOW CHANCE

The latest Euro is not as aggressive on the rainfall spread for the east coast and over the southeast of NSW with the onshore flow. Also not as wet over the southern parts of the nation with the frontal weather returning, so there are still some issues around the way the weather will play out over the course of the next week, this having impacts on the weather coming through via the westerly wind belt next week as well.



LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Rainfall is expected to be very much a feature for many areas through the next 6 weeks, especially over northern and eastern areas of the nation with the south and west having a tougher time of seeing more consistent rainfall but we are in a period of a predictability barrier so be aware the forecast will continue to change through this period. More details were posted today in the climate update.

More coming up from 530am tomorrow and looking at the Sea Surface Temperatures as well and where they are currently placed and what impact that would be having on us moving into July and August.