MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE BROADER DATA SETS ALSO SUPPORT RAINFALL SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.

As per the evening weather video, we are seeing that idea from last week of wet weather progressing from west to east through Southern Australia being the biggest feature this week accompanied by those cooler temperatures leading to many locations seeing a gradual shift into wet and wintry weather by the end of the week. This will follow a few dry days for many areas inland of the coast.


A set of cold fronts will rotate through the Bight from mid to late week with the risk of rainfall quite decent for the southern Ag areas of SA through VIC and southern NSW into the ACT.


The drier weather will develop along the coast of NSW and southeast QLD from mid-week, that is as the winds tend into the west to northwest as continental air is drawn through the region, replacing the high humidity and showery northeasters.


Let’s take a look and see there is more rainfall into the medium term.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Starting to see the wavy flow over southern Australia increasing and this is thanks to the same model predicting that the SAM is tending negative which invigorates the westerly wind belt and brings it northwards. I think we will see better rainfall chances for southern and southeast parts of the nation based on current guide with rainfall running from west to east across the country via the jet stream, but totals to be determined. One thing going against the GFS model overall is consistency which is why I am not ranking this any more than a moderate chance of occurring (<40%)

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE

I think this is running far too dry for the period with it showing moisture running through the nation from east to west, but suggesting no trigger, with ridging winning out suppressing rainfall chances. The Euro and GFS disagree with that and so therefore I align myself with that idea. So, expect further changes to this product.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - HIGH CHANCE

A better chance of this verifying with the rainfall in the east easing and the moisture returning to the west of the nation through the jet stream bringing more rainfall. A series of fronts over the southeast and south will help to bring rainfall chances up for SA, VIC and TAS. Further frontal weather comes into SWLD of WA with widespread falls developing once again in the medium term. The east may begin to dry out through the medium term.

LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE (<45%)

The longer term, still showing some areas getting trounced and no big dry out across the country, this has been an unprecedented 2 years for many areas, not all, but certainly looking at that continuing for the same areas if this is right and also those who have missed out finally get in on the action too.

More details coming up for the early birds from 530am EST. The next video at 8am EST and we will be looking at more weather issues throughout the week too! Plenty on as always!



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