MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE BROADER DATA SET SETS THE TONE FOR RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION

The rainfall spread on the broader data sets have been much more consistent than the single run data sets that populate the weather apps causing many of you to get frustrated from time to time when numbers change so much.


The rainfall is forecast to spread throughout as mentioned in recent days. Deeper moisture is expected to spread through NW WA and coming into the jet stream and then spreading south and southeast next week, which offers some interesting prospects for rainfall beyond the weekend and the cold blast next week.


But it is all eyes on that event this weekend into next week, with some strong signals for the best rainfall for many areas in SA for many months which is coming probably a week late for many, but hopefully enough to get the crops in and settled.


Let’s take a look


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The GFS shows more moisture over the inland of WA spreading into the interior and then into cold fronts potentially running through southern parts of the nation leading to above average rainfall chances. We could see a month's worth of rainfall developing over the southeast of the country with frontal weather during this period. Drier period expected for the east coast which will be welcome for many.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members)

The latest CMC is now a lot wetter, starting to see what the Euro and GFS see in the impacts of moisture surging through the jet stream into the central and southeast parts of the nation. The east coast may have its driest period for the year with the majority of the rainfall aligned with the westerly wind belt passing through the southern and southeast parts of the nation. How much moisture can be drawn into the cold fronts remains to be seen.

CFS - Rainfall Next 21 Days (median of 4 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The CFS picked up on this last night with moisture traversing the nation and it is still showing this occurring through the outlook period which would be quite a coup for parts of SA and VIC which has missed out on rainfall. Overall, the nation still recording above average rainfall through the next 2-3 weeks if this is correct.

LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The longer-term rainfall signals are still very elevated with widespread above average moisture being drawn in from the Indian Ocean into the nation, leading to a higher chance of cloud bands spreading that rainfall over arid areas and then into the Agricultural areas of the country. SWLD of WA may miss the moisture and will need to rely on cold fronts being active.

More coming up from 530am EST for the early birds like me, the next video at 8am EST. Have a great evening.