MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE BAND OF RAIN IN THE MEDIUM TERM HAS ME INTERESTED OVER WA.

I have focussed a lot on the developing rain event over the southeast of the nation which offers the better rainfall in recent times which is great news for SA, VIC and TAS. But it is the moisture that is sitting over northwest WA that is providing them larger rainfall chances as we go through the short term. However, what does that moisture do as we move into later next week and beyond?


The broader data sets are setting the stage for that moisture to spread into follow up cold fronts developing from the west later next week and into the first week of June and possibly more into the Queen's Birthday weekend too for southern areas while the drier bias may continue for a little longer over eastern QLD, NSW and through the tropics which would be welcome!


Lets see what the latest data is


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

The latest GFS looking fairly positive for rainfall in the short term across the country but the members into the medium term have no idea what is going on and are all over the shop; with moisture forecast to go north on some solutions, southeast and disintegrate on others. So will be watching. But overall, the pattern is looking more winter like for the coming week to ten days.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The latest CMC has more rainfall spreading through the nation than the GFS where days ago it did not even see it, anyhow it is showing more robust chances for follow up rainfall later next week into the weekend with a deep moisture plume. The east coast looking unsettled more so than the other models which I do not buy just yet. Southern third of the country looking more Winter like which is what you would expect at this time of year.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall spread is most generous on the Euro than all other models with a big slab of moisture coming through the jet stream and linking into cold fronts bringing rainfall across the country into the medium term. Numbers are increasing over the eastern inland with some of that moisture from the west reaching the eastern inland with heavier falls than the other models suggest. This model also suggesting that the SWLD of WA would see less rainfall under this scenario.

LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The southern third of the nation looking wet which is good to see but still seeing persistent signals for the rainfall to return over the east coast and heavier moisture coming in over the northwest via the jet stream with locally heavy falls possible. The western interior also looking very damp with rainfall spreading in from the tropical areas of Indonesia.

More coming up tomorrow from 530am EST with the early bird edition. I am travelling tomorrow morning so no video in the morning but there will be an update. I will bash out the 6 week outlook at some time tomorrow as well and the next video with some luck tomorrow evening. Talk to you from QLD.