MODELS AND RAINFALL - SOUTHERN DOMINANCE OF THE RAINFALL COVERAGE BUT WHAT ABOUT THE NORTHERN EVENT?

The models have been toying with many a farmer and pastoralist in the north of the nation with eager beavers certainly excited to see plenty of colour on the charts over recent days in the medium term, but where does that stack on the probability tracker and when should we start to get better confidence in that event actually occurring?


The answer to those questions is.... with time. That is how weather works, and I am sure, more than not, your Apps, "mediarologist" sites, fringe weather pages and agencies will be shouting that this is the next big flood and disaster for the nation to drum up interest, likes and cliental.


But as I keep saying, the weather is not interested in any of that crap and it does not care about my or your feelings, it is what it is and does what it does. So back to the old school forecasting it is, and to the data sets we go.


Before the data sets, I will be posting analysis of interest relating to the rainfall spread as necessary, to cut down on the repeated information just posted twice or three times a day, so it may look a little quieter, but that is to ensure the quality of information that is important to you in this time poor world we live in.


Let's take a look at the latest data sets.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The latest GFS is suggesting inland rainfall is becoming more of a chance with about 20/35 members supporting a robust rainfall event over the eastern parts of QLD and that running into northern NSW. But the overall trend of wet weather being more frequent over southern Australia is a more likely outcome given the negative SAM phase in place.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Noting that the CMC is picking up on rainfall developing over the interior tonight with about 17/30 members showing inland rainfall spreading through WA, NT and QLD. Widespread rainfall developing over southern areas with frontal weather and another large cloud band developing towards the end of the month over the western parts of the nation.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) -HIGH CHANCE

The rainfall is essentially the same as yesterday for southern and western areas of the nation though numbers are higher on the Euro out west, indicating more moisture rolling out of the Indian Ocean in the medium term. The rainfall numbers over eastern QLD are coming up as well in line with that moisture surging southwards later next week from the NT over QLD and possibly into an upper trough. Seasonal rainfall most elsewhere for the period.


LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE.

Rainfall numbers are increasing for southern areas of the nation and that is in response to the negative SAM phase. Noting the excessive moisture and rainfall lingering over northern parts of the country, which could fuel the rainfall chances over northern and northeast parts of the country as some of the other global models have been picking up.


More coming up from 530am EST with the early edition, many of you are up and about that time, so check in to get a quick wrap of what is happening if you cannot get to the videos etc.



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