MODELS AND RAINFALL - SOME INTERESTING SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM AND MOISTURE INCREASES AS WE GO.

Lots of interest in the short-term weather which has been covered off heavily through the past day and I will look at that in greater detail tomorrow.


The short-term forecast is complex and of low confidence at the moment which will impact all the weather to come beyond the coming 5-7 days.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Following 15 Days (median of 35 members)

Generally unchanged from the guidance with moisture streaming into the systems rolling through the Southern parts of the nation with the bulk of the wettest weather expected in areas exposed to the westerly wind regime. Dry through the interior for now but copious moisture loads are expected to continue to feature through the end of the period and I would not be surprised if we saw rainfall breaking out in the white zones.

CMC - Rainfall Following 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE WEST TO MODERATE CHANCE EAST.

Noting the moisture is increasing (the grey shading) over inland QLD at the end of the period. Before then we see the bulk of the rainfall along the east coast tonight and tomorrow before things clear and the westerly wind regime takes over. There are about 3-4 major frontal passages for the SWLD of WA and I think rainfall could be lean compared to what is possible. That rainfall will spread throughout Southern Australia as we see the westerly wind belt shift further north and interact with the moisture streaming southeast from the Indian Ocean.

EURO - Rainfall Following 15 Days (median of 51 members) - LOW CHANCE EAST TO MODERATE CHANCE WEST.

The spread from the models is in good agreement tonight as you can see but there are quirks to the pattern in the short term which will render these forecasts at low to moderate confidence at best, with upper-level systems creating havoc with rainfall spread over the southeast and east. Better confidence lay in the rainfall spread over in the west of the nation. So standby for further changes to this.

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE THROUGHOUT.

That rainfall bias over the east in what is usually a drier time of year is of concern. The moisture content over the northern and eastern tropical areas close to the nation's north is of concern too. The moisture content is looking to increase via the westerly wind belt leading to more rainfall falling with frontal weather over southern and western Australia. It is rather unchanged in signals from last night but that rainfall in the east is of concern to me moving into Spring.

More coming up from 5am EST with the early edition, quickly wrapping the details on the systems to watch ahead of the next video from 8am EST.