MODELS AND RAINFALL - REVIEW OF THE MEDIUM TERM ONCE AGAIN - RAINFALL CHANCES REMAINING HIGH?

Certainly, seen some interesting signals for rainfall into mid-month which I have shared with you in recent days, but I can assure you there is little skill in being hyper specific at this point, given the complexity of the weather in the short-term dictating proceedings for the country’s south and west.


The lagging impacts of this large-scale weather system moving through this week will not be known until about Thursday, that is when we get a better sense on conditions following the event and how the event resolves.


There are further signals still tonight that there may be further widespread areas of rainfall to deal with, but it comes down to model of choice.


However, as you know I look at all modelling, not consensus modelling because that is confusing, but all data sets and verify that against reality and with what we are seeing.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CONFIDENCE.

The deterministic data is way more active and dynamic than this current spread of data that we can see below, meaning that the 7-day rainfall outlooks remain of low confidence, but we can see moisture increasing over much of the interior, but models are diverging on the idea of where the moisture goes and whether we see low pressure combine with the moisture to produce widespread rainfall.

CMC - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CONFIDENCE.

The CMC very similar to the GFS where we have divergence in the modelling, with the deep moisture linking into low pressure, but with the members within the model going every different direction so for now it remains of low confidence.

EURO - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 51 members) LOW CONFIDENCE

I still think we will have frontal weather to deal with during the medium term which is a reflection of the SAM remaining neutral and the lag impact of the negative phase. There is a chance of moisture building throughout the interior and gathering into the frontal weather which other models suggest, so keep watch closely. The rainfall will evolve further in the days ahead with moderate to heavy falls appearing in some of the members associated with this ensemble data sets.


LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CONFIDENCE

The rainfall signals continue to strengthen throughout August and into September 2022 which will be covered off more tomorrow from 11am EST.

More coming up from 5am EST with the parameters of interest before we get the next video from 8am EST.