MODELS AND RAINFALL - POTENTIAL FLOOD EVENT SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE NATION.

Lets take a look at the very latest details on all things rainfall and flood risk for the nation, especially for those in central and eastern Australia. As mentioned last night, things will evolve quickly once there is a better handle on what the tropical system is doing and now we are seeing that come to pass.


SHORT TERM

The short term has been tricky to forecast but we are seeing better agreement now that Tiffany will move south and southeast and all that moisture will like ridge the northern aspect of a ridge passing through the Bight. How far north that ridge is will determine how far south that rainfall comes through South Australia and then points east and southeast, that will be the driving factor. The west may miss out on this first lot but the north and central parts of WA may remain fairly unsettled through the outlook period.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE




MEDIUM TERM

The medium term offers more widespread rainfall for the east as the tropical moisture gets another kick along by yet another deep trough, leading to more widespread rainfall over the north and east of the nation. The trough may form into a low over the eastern inland of NSW and VIC which could increase the risk of follow up heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, thus increasing your flood risk. High humidity and cloud cover will lead to below average temperatures. For the north of the nation, another surge of monsoonal weather will be approaching and could see tropical lows redevelop with further heavy rainfall over all areas of the north. That is another area to watch rainfall wise for much of the nation with further rainfall events being born out of this into the end of the month.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - LOW CHANCE

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE



ENSEMBLE DATA - ALL MODERATE CHANCES

These are looking very wet now for central, northern and eastern parts of the nation with that high humidity and troughs of low pressure leading to areas of heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity. These prognostics support more flood potential for many areas of the nation and severe weather potential. The high pressure ridge to the south of the nation will dictate how much moisture and rainfall comes south.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members)

The ridge is firmer over SA so the rainfall is deflected further to the north but makes it over the east with persistent troughs.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members)

The ridge is a little firmer but still allows for the moisture to make it into the southeast of the nation.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members)

This is suggesting the ridge won't be as strong over the Bight and allows the moisture to come further south.



LONG TERM

The very wet signal continues for the remainder of Summer and this may leak into early Autumn.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

We still have a very robust monsoon to develop over northern Australia.

Will review further data sets and have another update on the flood potential later.