MODELS AND RAINFALL - NUMBERS STILL COMING UP INTO AUGUST AS WE SEE THE PATTERN FLIP.

We are still eyeing off that pattern flip developing by the end of the week into the weekend, hopefully rounding out a bit more activity for the end of July and the weather starting to ramp up into August. The rainfall is a key feature over the very active weather pattern being tabled by all models. But how does it look on paper?


Consensus modelling, deterministic modelling and ensemble modelling all useful, all showing similar things but need careful interpretation on trends in the pattern, not just being seduced by the rainfall that screams off the chart on one run and then disappears the next.


The idea is largely unchanged as we move into the first week of August with more rainfall than we have seen impacting southern parts of the nation.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

GFS showing moisture spreading throughout the nation with light to moderate rainfall chances developing over the southern and central interior. The eastern inland may see higher rainfall totals in the first week of August with moderate to heavy rainfall in the southwest of the country with frontal weather. The rainfall over the south and southeast connected to those areas impacted most by frontal weather.

CMC - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE

Note the difference in the modelling from last week with the moisture now streaming through much of the nation with the moisture content increasing. The moisture resulting in widespread light rainfall signals where last week the rainfall is forecast to spread over southern parts of the nation as well with frontal weather. CMC also sees another rain event over QLD.

EURO - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 51 members) - LOW CHANCE

The Euro is a little less enhanced on the inland moisture but it is more amplified in rainfall spreading throughout the southern parts of the nation - so altogether we are seeing a general consensus across all data sets that the weather is getting wetter as we go - but the confidence in the connection between the moisture to the north and the frontal weather to the south remains low - with more information to follow through the week on this,.

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Also showing the moisture spreading through the jet stream through much of August with moderate to heavy rainfall chances with each of the rain bands. The moisture and rainfall is expected to shift around from run to run, but the TREND is for moisture to increase from the Indian Ocean Dipole. Noting that the Coral Sea moisture could increase via the easterly winds and the northern tropics as well. So, there are some dynamic weather events to watch in the medium to longer range.

MEDIUM TERM

July 31st-August 7th, 2022

Moisture Watch

The moisture is increasing through the end of the month and likely to remain in high coverage throughout the nation as we enter August. Now there will likely be a lot of cloud moving throughout the nation, the heaviest of more concentrated rainfall is more likely to occur on and west of the divide in the east and through the southern states and heaviest over in WA. Some decent signals for a deeper rainfall event to develop over the eastern inland, through parts of western QLD and northwest NSW with an inland feature.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are coming up over the eastern and southeast inland with the convergence of moisture and unstable air leading to widespread cloud developing and areas of moderate rainfall over normally dry areas at this time of year. Seasonal rainfall expected through much of the south of the country, the dry season continues over most of the north though a few showers may keep the rainfall totals higher about Cape York. There may be some further above average rainfall over the SWLD of the nation with further moisture intrusion.

Temperature Anomalies

The heat engine is continuing to wake up and this is one of the areas to watch, as many love to focus on rainfall - this is another element that may see the rainfall increase in coverage as the thermal gradients become more dynamic and tighter, with moisture running through the clash zone, it opens many areas up to rainfall developing above the norm for August.

More coming up from 5am EST with the early edition and you can always catch up with the weather bites on the Facebook Page too.