MODELS AND RAINFALL - NOW WE CAN SEE THE TRADITIONAL WINTER PATTERN DEVELOPING.

And the ability to see where the next major rainfall event emerges from will become a lot easier too as we track moisture across the north of the nation, building over the northwest of the country and this then feeding south and southeast into the central and southern interior.


The wild cards are the frontal weather in combination with the moisture spreading south and southeast over the course of the next few weeks and how much moisture can we expect to get into these cold fronts will determine the spread of rainfall and how quickly that returns.


Good news for the east is that the moisture and rainfall look to retreat to seasonal expectations with not a whole lot expected throughout the flood zones which will help ease the flooding.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) LOW CHANCE

Rainfall is forecast to be very much confined to coastal areas over the coming 2 weeks with the southern parts of the nation seeing the bulk of it and the northern and central parts of the nation rainfall free…for now. There is evidence that moisture may return via the jet stream over those warmer than normal waters across the Arafura and Timor Seas through the Indian Ocean that will lead to higher chances of cloud bands forming. This may see rainfall return and cooler than average temperatures resume as well just beyond this period.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) MODERATE CHANCE

The latest CMC also similar to the GFS showing the widespread shower activity over the southern parts of the nation, but the coverage is a little further north than the GFS suggests leading to better coverage over Ag Areas under this solution. The drier signal looks entrenched over the northern and central areas of the country for a while but there is moisture lurking through the medium term to longer term to finish the month and I fully expect rainfall to return in a widespread fashion to finish the month.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) MODERATE CHANCE

The Euro very similar to the other models but in the medium term, increases the moisture via the Indian Ocean and so while there is some model madness and low confidence surrounding the return of moisture, all models see it, is just a matter of who is right, which will become clearer as we go along through the coming week.

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks (4 Members)

Rainfall is still expected to dart across the nation from west to east from inland WA, through central Australia and into the eastern inland in association with the moisture pooling throughout the jet stream. A strong chance some of the frontal weather will start to lift northwards as well, and if we do see a negative SAM phase then buckle up for a pretty wild end to the month and start of August over southern Australia.

More coming up from 530am EST with the early edition and a quick review of the systems to watch which I will break down further in the weather video from 8am EST.