MODELS AND RAINFALL - NOTE THE DRIER SIGNAL FOR THE WEEK, BUT IT WILL TURN TOWARDS END OF MONTH.

The weather is looking much more settled for most areas of the nation, even in the presence of troughs, isolated showers and thunderstorms will not cause chaos this week over the nation.


So many of you in the headers getting the crops out, a much more productive period on the way so GO GO GO!!! Make the most of the drier spell because it will not last!!


Lets take a look


SHORT TERM

As mentioned in the last few updates, not much happening apart from a trough over inland WA extending into northern parts of the nation triggering showers and thunderstorms. A weak front may trigger a few showers for the SWLD. Another trough over in the east mid week could produce a few robust showers and thunderstorms, but the coverage is not expected to be especially widespread. From the weekend, the weather is expected to turn more unsettled over the northern and eastern parts of the nation with the moisture increasing and the troughs deepening and that should then remain in place into the medium term.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - HIGH CHANCE

Fairly settled for most areas and this is probably the right solution through until the weekend. Models become more divergent in the moisture and thunderstorm coverage into next week leading into Christmas

MEDIUM TERM

Moisture appears to pool over the northern and eastern portions of the nation, and models differ on how much is drawn south, and builds into widespread rain and thunderstorms, but some models keep the moisture up north and others bring it as far south as NSW and deeper into WA. I think we will get better clarity on the spread as we pass into the latter stages of this week. For now, expect the moisture to return with the heat building and then the rain and storms increasing from around Christmas until the end of this year.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

Probably way too dry against what we are seeing across the board this evening.

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

A drier week is on the way for the nation but the CMC suggests the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase as we go through the weekend with deepening troughs and more moisture available as we track towards Christmas. Be aware that the coverage of rainfall remains low but the idea of the moisture and rainfall returning, that idea remains moderate to high.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - HIGH CHANCE

The tropics see more rainfall developing over the weekend and into next week, there could be some wild storms up in the NT and Kimberly with the higher CAPE values building. The east as mentioned will see the showers and thunderstorms return to inland QLD and extend into NSW next week. Patchier rainfall this week with troughs dotted throughout the nation.

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

You can see that the modelling here is far more aggressive on the moisture departing the tropics coming southwards. This remains to be seen but this idea is a high chance of occurring, it is just whether it is before or after Christmas. I am leaning towards after Christmas.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Similar to the ACCESS it wants to bring the moisture south and east through the nation as we get towards Christmas and as mentioned the idea of moisture departing the tropics and heading south is a sound one, it is just how far south and east it makes it before Christmas. But it will occur at some stage in the medium term.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE

This data set is too dry, looking at the ensemble data set, the weather is much wetter in the future and this model will adjust over the coming days.

ENSEMBLE DATA

As I stated above the weather is very hard to pick in terms of when does the rainfall return to the south and east? That question should be answered by later this week coming, but for now it is dry for many areas this week and hot. The weather is expected to turn very stormy over the north and that will start the cycle of the moisture, rainfall and storms returning southeast.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Much more realistic than it's single run data set.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

This is probably more realistic showing the increasing nature of tropical moisture for northern Australia and this spreading southwards as we get into Christmas and then towards NYE, it will be a hot and humid nation with storms in many areas.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

This splits the difference between GFS and CMC, showing the moisture over the north increasing and the tropical weather becoming more active offshore, will have to watch for tropical depressions north of Australia. That moisture spreads south and east.

LONG TERM

Make the most of the weather being dry for now as it will not last, and this does not just go for the east, it goes for the whole nation as the tropics turn very wet as the first monsoonal burst arrives in early January.


GFS - Rainfall Next 5 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

That is additional rainfall to come for the nation, remember the nation is dry for most of the next 10 days or so.

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

And note the monsoon hits the north and northwest, the rainfall in the southeast and east increases and patches through the inland. We may be going into HOLIDAY mode, but I will be here covering it off, and the flood threat for the nation is not over!

This is the ensemble data set. It is showing the early monsoon for the Coral Sea and the next wave of monsoonal weather for the north in early January. The secondary burst will set the rainfall rates right off the scale.

More details to come from 7am EDT.

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