MODELS AND RAINFALL - LATEST ON THE WEATHER EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND INTO JULY.

Let's get straight into with the significant rainfall potential still lining up the north and east in dry season, that being quite anomalous, plays havoc on the modelling for the short and medium term.


Further rainfall along the east coast with deeper easterly winds is also possible but is it supported by the broader data sets.


And do we see rainfall coming back from the west during the outlook period?


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

Rainfall much more muted that the single data set and as referred to in the video, the forecast packages will continue to shift wildly in response to the weather pattern being high amplitude with anomalous moisture content, higher than normal temperatures over the inland and colder air surging north, the ingredients are there for vigorous weather to unfold!

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE

The CMC is wetter than the single run used in tonight's weather video so understand that the forecast confidence remains low, but you can see that all areas of the nation now covered in some form of precipitation throughout the coming 2 weeks, this indicating the wide range of solutions and divergence in the modelling so low confidence continues.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - LOW CHANCE

The Euro is wetter than this morning's run continuing the low confidence outlook for the product with most members diverging from one another. This will mean that we are literally in no man's land. The consistency is poor. Is a drier outcome possible? Absolutely, but the model is literally the cheese that stands alone at the moment on this outlook.

CFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 4 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The CFS still suggesting widespread rainfall over the short term and follow up into the medium term in the east. Moisture also returning in from the west with cloud bands developing from the first week of July from the west and spreading into the interior of the nation if this is right. Also sees the elevated SSTs north of the nation feeding the troughs that appear over the interior.

LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall indicators as mentioned is spreading back to the Indian Ocean which is set to become a feature. The higher-than-normal SSTs north of the nation is also leading to significant chances of rainfall remaining above the average over northern and eastern Australia. If the nation gets warmer than normal in the weeks ahead, this will mean we will be seeing more excessive Winter Rainfall and after the past few days of elevated temperatures, watch the response when the moisture and colder air gets involved.

More coming up from 530am with the latest look at the systems to watch, clearly the event next week is the one of great interest and I can assure you, it will be a whole new set of ideas to navigate so strap yourself in for the ride over the coming days.