MODELS AND RAINFALL - IT IS ALL ABOUT THE RAIN EVENT FROM NEXT WEEK

The overall pattern until we get to the weekend is unchanged and that has been well documented for the past few days.


This post looks further into the development of a rain event over the northeast and eastern parts of the nation. There is the risk of flooding and severe weather under some solutions which needs to be reviewed carefully in the coming days.


So, let's see where we stand on the general members and whether we have consistency.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The GFS is increasing to show the rainfall becoming widespread and heavy and extends further south than the single run tonight, and some of the members support a deep east coast low for NSW, so watch that closely. Noting the rainfall is being drawn back further west into eastern SA and the NT. Drier bias back west under the Winter Break period.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Widespread rainfall increasing in coverage across most of the members of the CMC with the east coast also getting wet too now with an onshore flow developing. Noting the rainfall spread extends back through much of the interior as well so we may see the rainfall numbers coming up for the NT and possibly northern SA as well. The western interior rather dry for now.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - LOW CHANCE

The confidence not especially high on the Euro tonight with the members quite divergent so this model becomes the outlier this evening with others more converged in the placement of all the moisture through the weekend and next week. Short term rainfall focusses over the southern parts of the nation.

CFS - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 4 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Numbers are coming up for QLD through the period and this model does merge this will another upper trough over the southeast inland from the end of the month into July, so the wet bias is strengthening for the east and north. The west, drier for the coming 10-14 days.

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall rates across the east are excessive for this time of year and they are creeping up a lot, which this model has been showing ahead of the other models in recent days. Drier bias in the west for the coming fortnight but the rainfall comes back from the second week of July if this is correct and then increasing. Deep moisture still lurking over northern Australia fueling the rainfall rates. Note the rainfall over the Tasman, all we need the winds to do is turn easterly and it is on for anomalous weather for the eastern parts of the country.

More coming up from 5am EST looking at the weather systems in the short term to kick off the coverage tomorrow and then the next video from 8am EST. See you soon.