MODELS AND RAINFALL - FOCUSSING ON NEXT WEEK

I will keep an eye always ahead of the game for you, that is why you are here, as there is an enormous amount of interesting and somewhat confusing detail out there from many agencies about this weather this week. It has been done to death, so let’s have a look at next week and the potential for follow up rainfall chances moving throughout the southern Ag areas, despite the rainfall increasing over the recent days, some areas have missed out.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CONFIDENCE

About 10 of the members seeing the interior recording more above average rainfall throughout interior WA and running into QLD, though the majority focusses the rainfall over southern coastal areas of the nation with lingering rainfall possible with a weak upper trough over QLD. The confidence in this is low.

CMC - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 30 members) - VERY LOW CONFIDENCE

Not a whole lot of confidence in this model run either with the members all over the board and no consistency. So, this will likely change. There is likely to be some frontal weather wafting around but the members see it and have them passing through with not much impact which I do not buy.

EURO - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 51 members) MODERATE CONFIDENCE

There is evidence that the weather pattern may support a rain event over the east or southeast of the country with an upper feature wafting through, modelling tonight on the Euro sees that upper air low next week and that may deepen offshore into this week for the 12-19th of August. Just an idea but something to watch. Frontal weather continues through the west and southwest of the nation, maybe a high over SA but the pattern looks somewhat unstable throughout the southern and eastern areas of the country.




LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CONFIDENCE

Additional rainfall events exist beyond the medium term and rest assured, if the warmer weather redevelops for the second half of the month, the weather is set to become volatile and vert wet especially for the east and southeast then running back over the central and northern areas of the nation.

More coming up from 5am EST and you can always catch the weather bites with me on the subscribers/members only FACEBOOK page which is useful to have when you are scrolling in front of the TV at night (like me - when I get a chance ;))


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