MODELS AND RAINFALL COMING PERIOD.

This is the most requested information and as we are moving closer to harvest and crops are struggling in certain areas, some are hanging out for it, while others are not wanting any more.


Mixed blessings as always.


You can refer to the Euro and GFS outputs and my analysis in your state based forecasts from this evening.


SHORT TERM -

ICON - Next 5 days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Rain currently underway through the SWLD so good agreement covers that situation down there. The main rainfall event for the SE of Australia remains the pinch point with numbers coming up in the latest ICON this evening. Will watch trends in other models, but at this time the remainder of the north and east remains dry for the period through Monday.

UKMET - Rainfall next 7 days - MODERATE CHANCE

This has softened the inland rainfall in recent rainfalls from SA through to the NT but if that fell over parts of the NT, it would still result in above average rainfall. Otherwise the falls a little lighter for the southeast and reasonable rainfall is ongoing over southwest WA tonight.

LONGER TERM

KMA - Rainfall next 12 days. MODERATE CHANCE

Running reasonable rainfall through the SWLD tonight with another system at the end of the period so two rainfall events for the region. Otherwise the rainfall spread has decreased somewhat over the central and southeast inland as better guidance comes to hand but the numbers over the east are a little hard to pin down still. Otherwise good agreement on drying conditions over the north, though this model brings moisture back later in the period.

CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days - LOW CHANCE

Coverage of rainfall through the interior into the southeast is probably a little too dry considering this model had triple what it is showing tonight three days ago, so this volatility not being handled well. The rainfall through the SWLD is probably the only accurate portion of this data set.

ACCESS - Rainfall for the next 10 days - HIGH CHANCE

Probably has the closest data set to the post in terms of rainfall developing through central and southeastern areas of the nation, with moderate falls up and down the NSW ranges. That makes sense, with a follow up system. Otherwise the weather over the north dries out as expected with the southerly flow moving in. Has the rainfall spread right through the SWLD, but no follow up there.

More weather details to come Thursday morning from 7am.