MODELS AND RAINFALL - CAN THE BROADER DATA SETS BRING SOME CLARITY THIS EVENING?

The deterministic (single data) sets have been very challenging to interpret with no consistency from one run to another and I am sure you are all seeing that on your apps, especially if you are living over southern parts of the nation.


The more consistent rainfall forecast is found over the WA region where rainfall is present over the SWLD, but not much wet weather forecast over the NW of the state with drier air that extends through much of the NT.


But the broader data sets have been offering some windows into where the weather may track as we finish the month, with two major rainfall events possible to finish the month, one over the north and northeast and another system over the west with a deep moisture infeed.


Let's see what they look like tonight.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Rainfall numbers are coming up over QLD in the medium term as you can see and that extends into northern NSW and then possibly into VIC. But the higher confidence in rainfall is still in place for the southern coastal areas of the nation, impacting most of the Agricultural areas that are used to seeing rainfall at this time of year, which is at seasonal values for now.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall numbers are largely unchanged for southern and southwestern areas of the nation for the short term, but the numbers are coming up over parts for eastern parts of the nation and the east coast with an interesting system emerging towards the end of the month. We will have to watch closely.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The broader Euro model tonight is increasing rainfall among its 35/51 members for the northeast with the medium-term rainfall event, before then the bulk of the rainfall is over the southern parts of the nation and possibly along the east coast over the weekend with the onshore flow.

The control member does have a similar spread in the medium term to the GFS, but further south over NSW and VIC.

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE.

Rainfall numbers are increasing over the eastern and interior parts of the nation as we capture most of July in the outlook period which is now starting to highlight how we are looking to get wetter as we go. I will point out the rainfall over the Tasman and Coral Sea is really bloody high as is the numbers over the northern waters offshore the NT and QLD.

The next update is coming up from 530am EST with the early bird edition, looking at the systems of interest and any major weather events on the horizon.