MODELS AND RAINFALL - BEYOND THE COLD OUTBREAK, WHAT IS ON THE HORIZON NATIONALLY?

So, we have been clearly seeing a pattern in the rainfall over recent weeks where it has been biased up over the northwest with heavy falls about. But there has also been widespread rainfall spreading through southern areas of the nation during the past week which has heralded the shift in seasons, Winter is now here.


But can we see the moisture interacting with the frontal weather through the coming few weeks? Or will we see further separation between the fronts and the moisture streaming through the Indian Ocean and into the Central Interior?


And the east coast seeing a lovely drier spell, but not so welcome over the SWLD, how long does this last?


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

The GFS has many of the 35 members diverging tonight with regards to the rainfall event over the northwest of the nation next week so expect this forecast to change in line with better data and guidance on that upper trough next week. The better chance of widespread falls will be over the southeast inland with some moderate falls with cold conditions. There may be some surprise falls in the short term over inland parts of NSW with the system passing through on Friday, then dry for a while.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE

Rainfall numbers are low confidence on the CMC tonight after looking at the 30 members in great depth, the northwest rain event coming in next week is being poorly handled, so expect changes. Some of the members take the rainfall southwards into the SWLD where others take it east into the central interior. The southeast of the nation is likely to see a wet week with showery west to southwest winds. Higher humidity this week over the north will lead to dry season falls to continue. Dry along the east coast for the short term but rainfall does look to return in the medium term as winds shift easterly.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The signals are promising for widespread rainfall over the southeast inland to follow up the rainfall we have seen in recent days. Also, better rainfall chances over the southwest inland with rainfall coming through from the medium term, compared to the modelling above and with all the moisture around the northern and western areas of the nation, I am expecting quite an active period from mid-June onwards for many locations. Something to watch in the days ahead.

LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

I spoke about the rainfall spread for the coming 6 weeks during today and you can catch up on that in the Climate Section. The westerly wind belt getting active but the moisture over the northwest has my interest and will likely be the driving force behind the widespread heavy rainfall chances over interior parts.

More coming up from 530am EST with the early bird edition and the next video coming up from 8am EST.