MODELS AND RAINFALL - AM EDITION

This will be the last morning edition for a while given that we have a better handle on the rainfall events across the nation and the focus after the weather clears the east and southeast over the weekend is shifting to the widespread high heat expected from this time next week. More on that later.


Let's have a look at the latest information this morning.


SHORT TERM

The short term forecast dominated by the severe weather potential over the southeast where rainfall will be excessive in some locations leading to flooding. The tropics remain under routine rainfall conditions with the daily showers and thunderstorms. The weather over the west remaining mostly dry though there is light showers and storms about today and likely again over the weekend for the interior. A cold front approaching early next week may introduce showers for the southwest of WA with again, light falls expected.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - HIGH CHANCE.

This has remained unchanged from last night.


MEDIUM TERM

Medium term weather looks hot and dry for many areas to begin with as we run into the last weekend before Christmas. Though humidity values are likely to build as favourable wind profile returns and the fast flow pattern over next week to the south of the nation moves south again. So broad easterly winds will drag that moisture in for eastern parts of the nation and the northeast winds over the tropics will support deeper moisture creeping southwards over the northern third of the nation. The west in prevailing westerly winds for a period will see dry air ingested into the southwest and western interior and that may extend into central Australia as well keeping the weather largely dry for these areas.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days

Heavy falls of rainfall up to 400mm over the southeast of NSW and eastern VIC could cause significant flooding if it develops. The weather elsewhere relatively quiet with high pressure and dry air developing from the west. Much of next week dry away from the tropics.

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

Heavy rainfall for the southeast in the short term with severe storms over the east. The heat builds over much of the nation early next week with drier air so settled weather for the next week over much of SA. But this model suggests that moisture will run into the trough dragging in the heat next week and storms may return from later next week. That is an outlier in the idea of this occurring.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

The Euro really wants to dry out the nation which would be music to the ears of many on the land. There will be a settled spell early next week across much of the nation with heat building so once we get this last severe weather event off the board in the east, things should be hot and dry for a few days next week before the humidity redevelops.

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODEATE CHANCE.

Has been bullish in the idea of heavy rainfall for the southeast and east and hence why we have seen those flood watches for NSW and QLD. The heaviest rainfall should be assigned to the southeast of NSW and eastern VIC. Flooding would be a very high risk under this scenario. The rest of the nation is likely to be fairly settled. Watching the moisture over the north towards the end of the run heading southwards.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Has been very bullish in keeping the heavy rainfall of 300-500mm over the southeast if NSW and eastern VIC which would be of great concern with significant flooding if it verified. The rest of the nation probably a little too wet, but given the high heat next week, it is conceivable that the thundery weather would become more widespread at the end of the run across the nation.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE

Has the spread of rainfall right but probably a little too dry.

ENSEMBLE DATA

Once we lose the rainfall event over the east this weekend, we will get a better handle on the rainfall spread moving into Christmas and New Years.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

This is probably the driest for the rainfall events across the nation but has the spread right. Has the tropical weather peaking well east of the nation which is based off good climate data.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

This is probably the wettest out of the three and while it picked the rainfall spread from the past four rainfall events, not so sure on this solution but will keep watch. Has the MJO over in the Coral Sea.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - HIGH CHANCE

Probably the closest to the post still which splits the difference between the GFS and CMC.

LONG TERM

The wet signal persists for the same areas identified in the last update. No change. We are expecting that moisture to build further for the end of the month and to kick off January.


GFS - Rainfall Next 5 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The wet weather continues for the east which needs to be watched.

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE.

The signal remains very strong with the wetter signal over the east of the country, eclipsing what falls over the northern tropics! That would be incredible if it verified.

More to come throughout the day.