MODELS AND RAINFALL - ALRIGHT WE HAVE THE RAIN EVENT OVER IN QLD - BUT LET'S LOOK BEYOND THAT.

It is clear that the short-term forecast is going to be dominated by the anomalous rainfall event in the east and the rainy weather out west. As much as I want to focus on the rainfall in the short term here again, it gets a good go in the weather videos.


So, let's have a look at the medium-term rainfall for the nation beyond this event in the east.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 35 members) LOW CHANCE

The GFS is much more aggressive in the handling of the rainfall over the east of the nation with a deep moisture load and onshore winds with a trough nearby delivering the higher rainfall totals. The rainfall over the southern parts of the nation below average. Average to above average rainfall for this period is quite likely in the west. Interior remains dry but cloud may redevelop as the moisture increases from the west via the jet stream.




CMC - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 30 members) LOW CHANCE

The members are split on how much rainfall lingers over the east, hence the broadcast moisture sitting through the eastern areas of QLD and NSW. The southeast also getting more frontal weather on some of the members and the SWLD of WA sees a major front with moisture streaming in from the Indian Ocean. The confidence is not high.

EURO - Rainfall Following 7 Days (single data) - LOW CHANCE

Noting that the Euro is seeing that moisture increasing via the Indian Ocean and too, kicks out the blocking pattern towards NZ which will open the door for those fronts to start creeping back into the southeast. Dry air keeps inland areas dry. Wettest weather over the SWLD of WA.

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The model is stubbornly wet for large areas of the nation for much of August, we will see how that plays out. Noting the east is wetter than normal. The southwest of the nation seeing a good go of the frontal weather and eventually, with some luck, this may start to spill into SA and VIC as well as the Food Bowl. All of these last areas look drier for the coming 2 weeks.

More coming up from 5am EST with the early bird edition for the systems to watch across the nation in the short and medium term.