MODELS AND RAINFALL - ALL EYES OUT WEST, THAT IS WHERE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKERS WILL BE!

The weather is forecast to be drier for much of the interior with a deeper drier airmass surging north following the very cold outbreak over the south and southeast. With higher air pressure ridging through the interior, that will support the cold dry weather for many away from the coastal areas.


Where you will find the rainfall is on the periphery of the upper ridge moving through, so that means we have the southeast wet with onshore winds over the remainder of the week and into the weekend and showery weather developing along the west coast with the next rain maker moving towards the WA coast.


Even over the far north, the humidity values have been very elevated leading to above average rainfall in recent times, but the dry surge moving north will whip that northward into the Arafura and Timor Seas.


Loads of moisture will remain dammed north and northwest of the nation fueling further rainfall chances across the nation as we move into the back half of June.


Let's see the medium-term broader data sets.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

The data sets off the 35 members from the GFS are wetter than the determisitic data that I have used in the weather video. Note that this means that weather forecast, particularly for southern and western Australia will change and likely become wetter as we go through the remainder of the week, and what has been a theme so far this year, we will get clarity from about Sunday!

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE

The CMC like the GFS is wetter than the single data sets I have been using in the videos of late, which suggests widespread rainfall chances will extend from WA through southern parts of SA and into the southeast inland in around a week to 7 days' time. There may be a protracted period of dry for the eastern inland.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - HIGH CHANCE

The rainfall coverage on the Euro is a lot more reflective of the impacts of the moisture spreading through the westerly wind belt passing through the southern states from next week and into the medium term, so as I keep mentioning, the rainfall totals for WA, SA and VIC through southern NSW and the ACT will start ton increase. Large parts of the NT and QLD look dry for a while including coastal areas, this extending down into NSW too,


LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks

The CFS expresses what I have been talking about in the weeks and frankly months prior to the Winter kicking off, that it will be getting wetter as we go through the outlook period, and certainly as the climate drivers are suggesting, it will be wetter from July onwards. So, the rainfall now is just the start of what could be a very wet period, so make the most of the drier weather.

More coming up during the early edition update from 5am EST and then the next video from 8am EST plus a look at the Climate Driver Updates from 11am EST