MODELS AND RAINFALL - A LOOK AT THE BROADER SETS ARE USEFUL

The deterministic data supporting the guidance underpinning the weather apps and the forecast across multiple agencies is somewhat volatile, low confidence and will mean more changes are expected not only in the short term, but the longer term as well.


So, I want to show you the broader sets tonight so you can see that there is actually a lot more agreement away from the volatile high-resolution information.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

The GFS similar to the CMC and Euro, is wetter in the broader data sets with a lot more moisture coming through the northwest flow aloft. Widespread falls coming into the south and southeast will continue to increase I suspect with the forecast spread amongst the members a little split but not showing what we have seen in the single data set this evening.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE

The broader data set off the CMC is wetter than the single data set we have seen this evening, so the forecasts will continue to chop and change and likely get wetter with the majority of members suggesting more influence from the northwest through to the southeast. Looking damp along the east coast this week but those numbers should start to ease later next week with the focus of rainfall moving back to the southeast, south and southwest.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - HIGH CHANCE

I think that this is the higher outcome across the country with heavy rainfall through the east in the short term, more rainfall over the western interior with a moisture surge and then rainfall spreading from west to east through middle and latter part of next week which will continue into the first part of Winter with the rainfall bias over southern and western Australia for now.


LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The signals for rainfall to tend more widespread over southern Australia is gaining traction in the longer-term modelling as shown in the Climate Outlook today. This is expected to feature as we see more frontal weather developing through the longer term. Note the well above average rainfall sweeping through the western and central interior along the jet stream leading to frequent cloud bands and below average temperatures. Those rainfall numbers close to the NT coast is well above normal.

More coming up from Saturday morning.