MODELS AND RAINFALL - A LOOK AT THE BROADER DATA SETS FOR THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM.

We have a significant risk of rainfall developing and leading to above average falls over the western interior of the country and the chance of another rainfall event to form along the east coast of QLD and this may spread southeast into NSW, but mainly impacting coastal areas.


Will some of it come across to the southeast or east of the country?


Let's take a look


00Z Euro - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks - (51 Members) - HIGH CHANCE

The rainfall totals on the broader data set reflect the heavier rainfall than what you are going to see on your apps and the famous yr.no pages. So, understand that your numbers will change as we see more rainfall feed through the western interior into SA and over QLD south into NSW. The driest weather should be found over the central and southeast inland with high pressure holding the rainfall bearing systems at bay. The northern tropics near seasonal.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks - (35 Members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The GFS has very heavy rainfall for parts of QLD and widespread rainfall spreading into NSW in the medium term, but the broader data sets are not as keen on that idea. The wettest weather is found over in WA with multiple cloud bands with locally heavy rainfall forecast for inland areas. The moisture from the west does move east towards the end of the month.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks - (30 Members) - LOW CHANCE

The CMC is showing widespread rainfall for WA and most members support above average rainfall with that rainfall moving southeast and east through the nation via the jet stream but won't bring rainfall until the high-pressure ridge over the southeast inland moves on to the east. The eastern coastal areas will see widespread showers with onshore winds leading to widespread falls. Some chance we could see a deeper trough form in the east and a strong cold front pass into the SWLD of WA bringing further widespread rainfall towards the end of the month.

00Z CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - (4 Members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall is forecast to remain above average through many areas during June with the westerly wind belt possibly returning to the end of the month as the La Nina wanes. We could see more widespread rainfall developing as we go from northwest Australia into southeastern Australia with moderate falls towards the end of the month of May and then becoming more frequent into June.

I will have more on the systems to watch for the early birds from 6am EST and then the next video from 8am EST. Have a great Sunday night.

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