MODELS AND RAINFALL - A LOOK AT THE BROADER DATA SETS AGAIN.

The temptation to play one single data set off another to suit an agenda is an easy thing to do in the weather world and to hide the rest of the data away that does not support an agenda. Here, I show you all of the information to give context to why I forecast what I am forecasting.


Lets have a look at the lesser used modelling, the ensemble data for the short and medium term to assess the weather moving forward through the period.


ENSEMBLE DATA

The broader data sets provide a much better insight into the rainfall spread across the nation as we track the systems, and also which systems on the single data sets that you are all seeing on the apps, are most likely to eventuate. So while they don't look as dramatic, they are a much better tool for working out what is fact from fiction.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

This model carries a lower confidence with the rainfall on the deterministic modelling for WA not featured here in the broader data sets and the rainfall over the eastern and central inland a lot lighter.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) MODERATE CHANCE

Widespread falls about the central and eastern parts of the nation looking a fairly good chance and most areas of SA, VIC, NSW and the ACT through to southern and central QLD and the tropics recording above average rainfall over the coming 2 weeks The west is dry.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall over the central and eastern parts of the nation is excessive so there is some merit to the weather here but as mentioned, the weather out west is expected to remain dry compared to other modelling we have been seeing.

LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Rain has become more widespread on the modelling throughout the nation which is good considering the dry spell that has been over southern parts of the nation through SA and WA.. The weather in the east should lend itself to being quite unsettled throughout the period too and the tropics offer lots of late season rainfall. That could help boost rainfall chances through WA.

I will have more on the next 6 weeks with a detailed outlook video and charting tomorrow which will take us into early Winter!!! Next update due out from 8am EST.

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