MODELS AND RAINFALL - A LOOK AT THE BROADER DATA SET FOR THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM.

There is plenty to watch as we move through a time of transition. The first decent burst of westerly winds is set to bring hopefully the best rainfall chances to fruition for large areas of SA and VIC which have missed out on the recent weeks of rain across the nation.


This means areas that have seen excessive rainfall could see a drier period too, which will be welcome for these areas, especially along the east coast.


We could also see multiple cloud bands across the country as well which may bring above average rainfall to the arid zones of the interior but spread further rainfall chances across the country if fronts can get involved.


So, while it is turning colder and wintry, the weather is remaining very active for parts of the south and interior.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members)

The GFS showing connection between the moisture from the NW through to SA and then into the southeast where the single data moves the moisture through the upper westerly winds into the eastern interior so that will be something to watch, where that moisture goes in the coming week or two. The rainfall over the southeast looks to be via the frontal weather and a colder shift over the weekend. The wettest weather could be over the southeast and in areas exposed into the westerly wind regime. Traditional Winter Weather.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall numbers are coming up on this model from yesterday as it starts to pick up the moisture being drawn across the country from the Indian Ocean into the jet stream and spread through the interior, particularly out west. Widespread showers over the southeast look to bring seasonal to above seasonal rainfall which will be welcome. The east dries out and more rainfall comes back to the west in the medium term following the rainfall in the coming 2 days.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall is forecast to ease over the east as expected through the coming 2 days, but what the Euro has for the west is far more than the other models, so that moisture will come into play during the medium term. Showery weather through the southeast will bring the heaviest rainfall in months to Ag Areas. Rainfall may ease for the SWLD for the short term, but more may come back in the medium term.


LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The westerly winds look to bring the bulk of the rainfall across the southern and southeast parts of the nation, but rainfall could be excessive in the southwest if this is right too, with a parade of cold fronts moving through at an above average rate. Moisture spreading through the jet stream will likely bring further above average rainfall through the interior. The east coast could still see 1-2 east coast low pressure systems between now and early July.

More coming up for your early birds like me from 530am!!!