MODELS AND RAINFALL - A BROADER LOOK FOR THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM

As promised as we start to get a more mobile pattern and multiple rainfall events on the board, it is critical to look at the broader data sets for guidance.


We are starting to see the end of the large rainfall event in the east and southeast and now the focus is shifting to the large rainfall event in the west and southwest in the coming days.


But what happens beyond?


There is more rainfall, but how much is to occur and where? Those questions likely to have some answers by the weekend, but for now we are looking at the trends.


One trend that is sticking is the humidity caked in across northern Australia and a jet stream infused with moisture running across the nation, but can this link up with low pressure?


Let us take a look


FORECAST


00Z Euro - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks (51 Members)

The latest Euro continues to increase rainfall through next week over in WA with many members showing a robust rain band developing early next week which does make it through SA and into the southeast with moderate follow up falls. Another rain band develops over inland QLD and northern NSW with moderate follow up falls towards the latter part of next week. Another band of rainfall emerges through the medium term from about the 23rd of the month over northwest Australia and spreads east and southeast through SA and into VIC and NSW. The rainfall is quite widespread. Also, above average rainfall trends continue for the northern coast of the NT and QLD.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks (35 Members)

The latest GFS is showing more members tonight aligning with the Euro and therefore we are seeing numbers coming up for the west and southwest of the country, especially later next week. Another rain event is possible over the eastern inland of the nation through next week too, but the number of members supporting this has dropped away a little, but I think that will come back. A larger rainfall event emerges over the west of the country from the 23rd. The moisture over the northern of the nation is higher than the Euro but the GFS does not connect that with the unstable airmass like the Euro does.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks (30 Members)

The latest CMC has significant rainfall across most members, but some outliers have tremendous rainfall over the southeast of NSW, the ACT and into parts of northeast VIC but this is a low chance. Rainfall numbers are coming up over the west of the country like the other models so that carries higher confidence of the influence on where rainfall is coming from. The Indian Ocean is clearly playing a larger role with the remainder of Karim sitting in the jet stream for a number of days while the circulation dies out next week offshore.

00Z CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks

The rainfall numbers as mentioned above are increasing further in the medium term but boy oh boy some signals are off the charts including this one. Now we look for trends not specifics in the longer term but as mentioned the signals are rather robust and flooding and severe weather potential still exists for the east and southeast of the nation with falls also increasing over the interior back to the northwest as well with risks of flooding for inland SA through the NT back into interior WA low, but still coming up from the very low status a few days ago.

More to come for the early birds from 6am EST and the next video from 8am EST. Stay safe in the wet weather in the east and out west tomorrow.