MODELS AND RAINFALL - A BRIEF LOOK.

The modelling is all over the board with a few interesting areas to watch, being the northwest of the nation, the tropics over the north and whether the fast flow pattern over the south can pick up any of the tropical moisture and bring about a classic March Northwest Cloud band situation.


Therefore rather than spending an hour or two preparing a full outlook off the data, it is easier to use the ensemble data sets which are broad but most accurate in these low confidence situations.

This is the simulated cloud forecast and cloud temperatures. Basically the more colourful, the more robust the cloud cover and the potential for rainfall developing. I think we will see a few cloud bands forming in the next 2 weeks from the northwest through to the southeast, but whether they peak on land or offshore remains to be seen. But you can see the moisture streaming into the frontal weather over the Southern Ocean.

00Z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

You can see the moisture spreading across the nation above and this playing out from northwest to southeast throughout the nation with frontal weather helping to draw in the deeper moisture and lift it into widespread cloud and rainfall potential for many western, southern and easter areas of the nation. Note the heavier rainfall continuing over the tropical north.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Rainfall similar to the CMC and shifting in recent runs to capture the northwest cloud band potential, the deeper moisture profile in the Indian Ocean and that being drawn south and southeast through the nation. Note the tropical cyclone activity in the Central Indian at the moment, a sign that the MJO is working its way around to the east. This may work in phase with the SAM being neutral or negative which will propel cold fronts northwards towards Australia.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks - LOW CHANCE

Probably a little too dry against the other data sets so we will lean with a wetter solution for now and keep an eye on trends in the coming days.

00Z CFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Note the connection of the rainfall spread back to the Indian Ocean and over the Tropical North with widespread above average rainfall potential in the medium to long term as well. That was covered off today in the 6 Week Outlook.

More coming up from 8am EDT.