MODELS AND ALL THINGS RAINFALL - WE CAN NOW FOCUS ON WHAT IS AHEAD WITH THE SYSTEM IN TH EAST GONE.

That makes trying to pin down the areas of interest a little easier with less noise from rainfall on the charts in the short term, and now more stacking up into the medium and longer term with some areas that have missed out, perhaps southern WA, eastern SA and lets hope central QLD all getting a go of it in the next few weeks.


Is it the Autumn Break? Not at this stage and if there is signals for an Autumn Break for areas that have not had any rainfall, you will hear about it here!!!


Lets take a look at the latest guidance


SHORT TERM

Areas to watch - the trough over inland QLD and NSW producing storms and showers over the weekend and into next week which could see a few heavy falls. Showery weather over the disaster zones to continue but no additional flood threat is expected at this time. Another trough over in the southwest will hopefully spread a few showers and storms for some Friday through the weekend. This system may spread further east during next week and could bring some storm potential for SA and into VIC and NSW again this time next week. The tropics likely to see an increase in the rainfall spread in the next week with the MJO moving through eastern Indian Ocean. That idea is being featured on most models which is a good sign for WA.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

The UK keeps the heavier moisture over the inland of QLD and into NSW with showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Showers continue for the coastal areas through this period as well. For southern parts of the nation, just limited falls developing with a weak trough through the middle of next week. Showers and thunderstorms over the north of the nation continue to increase as the MJO works into the Indian Ocean. Trade winds keeps the heaviest of the rain nationally through FNQ.

ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

The ICON has more rainfall for the southeast inland and through SA with a trough next week, and more isolated falls with a trough through QLD and NSW this weekend. Light to moderate rainfall for WA with the west coast trough through the weekend too and showers and thunderstorms increasing through the week as the MJO moves into the eastern Indian Ocean.

MEDIUM TERM

The MJO should at this stage, be parked over the north of the country leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms and the potential for small scale late season tropical lows or cyclones rolling through from east to west over the tropics. These late season systems can be very intense. If we see them, we may see widespread moisture spreading south and east through the nation. Showers look to continue for the east coast, mainly over QLD with the trade winds combining with the more active tropical weather to see heavy falls developing. Southern Australia through the eastern inland looks to be dealing with one system at this time, that could bring widespread rainfall. That looks to be between the 22-26 of March and impacts SA, VIC, NSW and the ACT at this point. But not all models show this.


CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

Curiously the CMC has more heavy rainfall near a developing upper low near SA through mid next week, that is born out of the trough passing out of WA into the central parts of the nation. The weather then translates slowly into the east. Ahead of the scattered falls likely with widely separated thunderstorm activity for many areas. The tropics seeing more rainfall than this week, next week, with the CMC focussing the heavier falls through QLD.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Seeing renewed evidence of another rainfall event for western inland parts of NSW and into eastern SA and through northern VIC which would be welcome for these areas, but I am not totally convinced but will keep an eye on it, for the rest of the nation, fairly quiet with not much change from yesterday. Watching the tropical weather too, there are signals the rainfall may begin to increase next week with a few models indicating a Rossby Wave moving through and the MJO also on the approach. The west seeing light falls with the trough this weekend.

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

Access has far too much rainfall through the interior and supposes that the SAM remains near positive values hence the rainfall coverage deeper, also running the MJO through the north quicker and placing it near the NT/QLD region at the end of next week hence the deeper moisture profile in place throughout and higher rainfall chances for many areas.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days

Has a heavier and multiday storm event for parts of western QLD dipping into northwest and western NSW and eastern SA. Not much further towards the remainder of the eastern inland. Showers for the east coast and out west moisture deepening from the north and northwest with the MJO floating through into the Eastern Indian Ocean.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days

The GFS much more modest in the approach to rainfall throughout the coming 2 weeks with the heaviest of falls over the north and northeast of the nation. The weather over the east coast supporting the onshore flow, so light to moderate showers expected. An inland trough this weekend may scatter storms. The tropics to see the increasing rainfall in line with the MJO moving around from the Indian Ocean into the north of the nation. Otherwise light falls most elsewhere in the short term, but watching the moisture building out of the northwest of the nation being fed across the nation via the jetstream into the medium term. Note the tropical system passing over the northwest of the nation as well.

ENSEMBLE DATA

This data has been a little divergent which expresses the uncertainty on the impacts of the climate drivers such as the MJO and SAM across the nation. This will become clearer as we move through the next week, but there are rumblings, the ingredients for another widespread rainfall event for Ag areas of the east which may bring some rainfall back to areas that have missed out through SA and WA if there is a tropical origin to this feature. So will monitor.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

Note that the CMC does not have the heavier rainfall that the single run above does for SA. But there is reasonable rainfall prospects for many through this period.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Increasing the falls for thirsty parts of eastern SA and into western NSW. May have to adjust the forecast rainfall in the short term for this region tomorrow if not Friday so keep watch. Tropics also getting interesting as advertised, maybe a busy end to March up north.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days - Control Member - MODERATE CHANCE

Interesting it has more of a tropical expression in rainfall over the northeast of the NT through QLD which may bode well for areas in QLD that are low on the wet season totals.

LONG TERM

We are seeing that redistribution of rainfall connected to the tropical weather, the SAM tending more variable through the outlook period and the waning La Nina still holding onto influencing the region.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks

Note the bias of heavier rainfall lifting up through the longer term over southern Australia, maybe signaling an Autumn Break coming in April. Also watch the tropical weather in the medium term off the northwest and the east coast still looking wet but nowhere near the values of the past few months.

More coming up from 8am EDT with the next video analysis.