MODELS AND ALL THINGS RAINFALL - THE SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES....BUT IS THERE MORE?

Yes that does seem to be the case I am afraid and by the end of this week, we will be needing about 2-3 weeks of dry weather nationally, which I cannot see occurring at this time.


So let's see what the weather is going to be dealing us in the short, medium and longer term and see if there are any signals for a break in conditions.


Good luck with those under risk of flooding in the coming days.


SHORT TERM

We know it is going to be wet, but all models differ on who gets the heaviest rainfall and that is due to the position of the low pressure system passing through the nation and with thunderstorms flare, dump their load and go on their way. Your number will vary but the coverage of rainfall will be widespread. The rain contracts to the north of the nation and over the southeast from the weekend with about 4 days of drier weather for inland parts of the nation before the moisture returns and instability returns.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

MEDIUM TERM

That instability starts to lift the moisture over northern and eastern areas with showers and thunderstorms developing and becoming more widespread. Another trough over inland WA may also see showers and thunderstorms return to interior parts of that state before moving eastwards towards SA. The overall pattern in the day 8-15 range is looking increasingly wet, not too dissimilar to what we are experiencing now, the difference is that the pattern is not as dynamic...YET, but some of the medium term models have been printing out inland low pressure over central and eastern parts of the nation and a deeper moisture profile than what we are seeing now, over tropical areas, which is the breeding ground for this above average rainfall now and into the back half of the month.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Heavier rainfall for southeast NSW with this low.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE - As mentioned there could be a gap in rainfall somewhere over northwest NSW or southwest QLD. Something to watch as the low moves southeast and the trough snaps northeast. Also heavier rainfall coming into the Ag areas in SA.

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

These numbers through the east are quite possible which are 300mm+ - also note the heavy rainfall and snowfalls for Alpine areas.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Similar to ACCESS these numbers are possible - spot falls of 200-300mm possible through QLD and northern NSW.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

ENSEMBLE DATA

This data set is now starting to show the rainfall emerging in the second half of the outlook over northern areas and then western areas of the nation, as well as the increase in moisture via easterly winds pumping the trough and promoting showers and thunderstorms over central and eastern areas. So the Ag areas of the nation are likely to remain wetter than normal for a while longer.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - HIGH CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

LONG TERM

No change from now to Christmas....wet.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

More coming up from 6am EDT. A very busy day of weather on the way and will try and cover off as much as I can for you. Good luck everyone and stay safe.

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