MODELS AND ALL THINGS RAINFALL - THE MONSOON RULES THE NORTH AND THE EASTERLY WINDS THE SOUTH!

That puts Australia in a very wet phase for the coming week to fortnight, with many areas already seeing record rainfall for January. When I said wetter second half to January, this is what I meant and we are only seeing the start of it, as the wet weather should be supported into February as well. That should be of concern in relation to flooding.


Large areas of the north remain under flood concern from me and I will continue to watch trends as this may extended into NSW and southern QLD as well.


A low risk extends back into southwest and southern SA, just keeping an eye on an upper disturbance there.

The northern tropics clearly under the influence of monsoonal conditions have a significant risk of flooding.

SHORT TERM

The short term still dominated by the deep trough over SA extending into the NT and to the monsoon trough, which will continue to seed this area of instability, providing support for signfiicant rainfall and thunderstorm activity on and to the east of this feature. This trough will deepen again during mid to late week with a low pressure centre possibly forming on it leading to heavy rainfall once again for SA, into VIC and western and southern NSW. Some of the falls over northern SA into northwest NSW, southwest QLD and much of the southern NT and into the Barkly could be record breaking with thunderstorms. So that is something to watch closely. The weather over the tropics dominated by the monsoon with heavy squally rain and periods of monsoonal storms at night. Tropical lows may form in the trough later in the week. The west is dry and the far eastern areas of QLD away from the coast could also be dry.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - LOW CHANCE

Widespread rainfall over the north of the nation looks to come into QLD and northeast SA and into northwest NSW with heavy falls, probably a lot heavier than what this is showing. The weather over southern SA looking to turn thundery before clearing later this week. The monsoon up north increases.

ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

More aggressive monsoon which I think is right based off current observations. The rainfall coming into NSW and VIC a little more readily and through much of QLD with heavier falls than what is being shown here. Scattered falls over much of the southeast with a better coverage of thunderstorms. The northwest of the nation seeing heavy falls with a tropical low. Much of QLD would remain under the ridge and fairly stable.

MEDIUM TERM

The medium term still has the monsoon in place leading to widespread rain and thunderstorms, squalls and flooding. There is the better chance of cyclonic formation through this period across northern Australia. For the southeast and east, better odds of seeing further high humidity and areas of rain and storms continuing as the easterly pattern remains dominant. The weather over the west remains dry in the downslope easterly flow, but hot. Some of the moisture out of the north may approach central western interior parts during the outlook. SA may turn a bit more quiet and seasonal through the early part of February


CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Heavy rainfall over the north in support of the monsoon. Can see the impacts of two tropical lows, one over Cape York and the other moving through inland WA. The moisture over the east kicks off showers and thunderstorms with uneven distribution of rainfall. The onshore winds over the east producing showers. The western interior is expected to bring widespread falls, but mainly light.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Suggesting a lot of rainfall will come southwards through the NT, into western QLD, northern SA and possibly northwest NSW. Flooding is a concern under such a proposal. The weather also trending more unsettled across the southeast and east of the nation compared to other models which is the right solution in my opinion. A very unsettled 10 days.

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Heavy rainfall of concern through much of the NT through western QLD and into northern SA would bring exceptional flooding risks. The tropical lows, one over WA and the other near Cape York will bring heavy falls if verified. The ridge places a lot of eastern QLD in a suppressed airmass. The west would see increased rainfall chances with the weather tending more unsettled as moisture creeps south out of the northern monsoon.

KMA - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Similar to the ACCESS and Euro - heavy flooding tropical rainfall for the nation's north and much of the central and possibly western parts of QLD into northern SA would pose concern. The remainder of the nation looks humid and unsettled but the far western portions look mostly dry for now as does some parts of Central QLD.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - MIXED CONFIDENCE.

Because of the outrageous synoptic pattern underpinning the forecast, the rainfall for southern and eastern areas of the nation remains of low confidence. For northern areas, the monsoon will continue to rule so that carries a high confidence at this time.



ENSEMBLE DATA

The broader data sets still very wet for Summer. Coming into the driest period for the nation, this is looking more like Spring time rainfall chances. So further flood risks are of concern throughout the nation.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

Rainfall totals more comparable to what you would see in Spring over much of the south and east with seasonal values for northern areas with the monsoon. Flooding continues to be of concern for inland areas of the nation.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Probably more representative of the rainfall potential over northern Australia with heavier falls expected. That moisture as mentioned through last Spring, drawn south and east into the favourable pressure pattern delivering more above average Summer rainfall. The west drier which is what you would expect at this time of year.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members)

A very wet signal across the nation - which will lead to flood issues across much of inland and northern Australia.

LONG TERM

The wet signal, continues onwards. Remarkable run.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks

The longer term models start to bring rainfall back into much of WA as the monsoon develops further through this month and the cyclone season begins to peak in the coming weeks.

More weather coming up from 8am EDT.