MODELS AND ALL THINGS RAINFALL - THE LATEST GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD.

The weather is turning active in the short term, this sometimes shields weather systems into the medium term where the dynamics can play havoc with guidance, for example, many eagle eyed weather weenies like me, would have seen the low that the Euro had for next week with 3 days of rainfall, well now it is looking hot and dry for the east and south ahead of a thundery change.


The volatility will continue for quite some time. We need more planes into the sky to send back more aviation data through to the weather models for them to work better, not perfectly, but better.


Again, the flood risks are expanding during this period, this product to be updated on Friday

Lets take a look at the data across the board.


SHORT TERM

We know the severe weather is expected to dominate the short term with uneven distribution of rainfall to feature, so rainfall charts are a guide and not gospel. The rainfall more extensive the further south you go through the east and moderate falls for parts of southern SA will also be welcome ahead of the heat next week. The tropics active, some of the heavier falls since last wet season expected for the Top End of the NT. Then we watch the low move off the southeast during Sunday and welcome a new low to the charts near SWLD which brings in the next batch of rain. There could be heavier falls with that feature. Showers may also develop in onshore winds for the east coast of QLD and NSW with higher humidity values returning.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

MEDIUM TERM

The medium term is tricky. The system from WA is expected to move east, but some models collapse the system against the blocking pattern between the upper low offshore QLD and the large high near NZ. This would result in moisture increasing but a weak lifting mechanism in place resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms for SA through VIC and NSW. The storm season may wax and wane as an upper high develops then weakens next week. There are signs for a larger in feed of moisture and a stronger trough developing in the day 8-11 range for the nation's south and east.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

ENSEMBLE DATA

Much better to look at the ensemble data which seems to be in fairly good agreement across the board. The rainfall chances do pick up for the last week of the month.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) HIGH CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) LOW CHANCE


LONG TERM

We still have a very wet signal for the coming 6 weeks which should be of some concern to those harvesting between now and November with very disruptive weather, a bit of what is coming through the next few days, being replicated over the east. The weather over the west may not dry out completely as we have been suggesting for a while.


CFS Ensemble Data - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

CFS Control Data - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - LOW CHANCE

More details coming up from 7am EDT. A lot of weather to work through so make sure when you log in, save your credentials, save your blog home page in your favourites, and come and go regularly. I will try and get out regular updates on the storm risks as well all the other commitments without killing myself. Have a good night.



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