MODELS AND ALL THINGS RAINFALL - THE BROADER DATA SETS GETTING MORE DAMP ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

The wet bias will continue to be along the east coast with the onshore flow in the short term and yet another large burst of rainfall over the northwest and west of the nation in advance of a series of cold fronts.


That rainfall is forecast to spread east and southeast as we go through next week and there are further rainfall opportunities across the nation's south as we track into the end of the month and into June.


Will this be another shift towards typical Winter weather and rainfall distribution?


Let's take a look


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The GFS ensemble reflects a more conservative approach than the deterministic data I showed you in the video update tonight, so that is why my forecast does not look nearly as colorful as that. So, we need to wait a few more days. The short term forecast for heavy rainfall to dominate the northwest and the central coast of QLD remains fairly high and rainfall coming into WA next week also remains rather high. How much of that moves east remains to be seen at this time.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE

The overall agreement from the members tonight is poor and therefore the rainfall forecast across the country's southeast and east remains also quite poor. The battle between the high over the Tasman and the large fronts to the west play out in very different ways across all the members tonight so watch this space. This forecast package tonight gets a low confidence rating.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Showing more rainfall influence from the northwest through to the southeast in the short- and medium-term members, looking at the data sets tonight, your numbers will continue to change. The areas of concern for severe weather are the Wide Bay coast of QLD and the Pilbara coast of WA where rainfall could be once again excessive in both of these regions with some members showing a lot more than what is publicly available tonight, but the chances are relatively low to moderate.

LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Really strong signals for that moisture over in the northwest to feed into the eastern and southeast inland through June leading to really, well, catastrophic rainfall projections for the Ag sector if this is correct. That elevated and even excessive rainfall trend runs along the south coast of SA and into WA and really right across the nation, phenomenal signals for rainfall for a period of time which is usually the driest period as a whole across the country with the rainfall mainly over southern areas.

I will have more for the early birds coming up from 530am EST. Trying to cover off as much information around the clock as we head into the busy sowing, growing and then harvest! So, make sure you stay up to date!