MODELS AND ALL THINGS RAINFALL - PM EDITION.

Lets get straight into it off the back of the evening update. You know where the elements are and if you don't, listen to your state based update to then cross check with this information.


SHORT TERM

The monsoon up north and the trough over the south and east will be the driving forces for the heaviest rainfall still. Keeping an eye on where the trough stalls out over the southeast and east of the nation during the latter part of this week into the weekend and the monsoon trough is moving south, how long does that hang out over the interior? Guidance is not quite clear at this point.

UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days

Widespread rainfall continuing over the north and northeast with the monsoon, that will continue with high confidence. Scattered falls being drawn into the trough over the southeast and south of the nation with an upper low moving east, will start to move the wet weather from SA, into VIC, NSW and QLD. The weather out west, dry for a while.

ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

This is still an outlier and unlikely to verify.

MEDIUM TERM

As per the evening update, the weather is expected to remain very much dominated by the monsoon up north and northeast with heavy falls continuing. The models are looking at a dynamic weather system moving through in the day 10-14 range over the south and southeast which may flush the humidity out of the south but before then, a large scale rainfall event is possible for eastern and northern SA through VIC, NSW and QLD with drier weather over the west. It may be a wet end to January and that wet start to February.


CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

No real change from this morning in the distribution of rainfall.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

The latest Euro is keen to bring more rainfall west to the interior of WA and this idea has been gathering subtle steam over recent days. The central areas very wet through to western QLD. Eastern interior this evening mixed odds with showers and storms. For the northern tropics, the weather remains very unsettled with the monsoon right through

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Has been very bullish on the idea of flooding out the northern parts of SA and much of the NT with a stagnant trough through this period. Mixed odds for the southeast and eastern inland with a slow moving trough and scattered storms. Monsoonal conditions up north.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Also has a lot of rainfall for interior parts of the nation and has been bullish in this idea like ACCESS. But like Euro, puts heavier rainfall over interior parts of WA. Monsoonal conditions up north. Curiously, printing out heavy rainfall developing for the eastern seaboard, with that idea also subtly cooking away in the medium term as a solution, so something to watch there as well.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE

The movement in the long term rainfall guide continues to render this outlook a low confidence but higher confidence does exist with the monsoon up north and the wet weather persisting. But for southern areas, there are some dynamics in the mix that could see a major weather event unfold, or in the case of GFS often, it resolves to nothing more than a trough with seasonal weather. We wait and see.

ENSEMBLE DATA

All data sets carry the same rating and have a good handle on the rainfall distribution. In terms of how much one place sees to another will come down to the coverage of storms over the south and east. In the north, the heavier the rainfall will be attached to the tropical/monsoonal low pressure activity.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members)

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members)

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members)

LONG TERM

More on this coming up tomorrow lunchtime in the updated 6 week outlook.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Still remains wet.

More coming up tomorrow with a look at the 6 week outlook as many head into the sowing season and plan for the Autumn and beyond.