MODELS AND ALL THINGS RAINFALL.

The models are transitioning into the Summer season which means your rainfall forecast because more unreliable across all agencies, as there is no skill ahead of time forecasting accurately in the presence of thunderstorm activity.


I have seen a plethora of the weather weeny pages on social media forecasting all sorts of things, I really encourage you to use reputable sources, instead of the unskilled application of beautiful rainfall maps from deterministic data sets that is essentially click bait!


Stay close to information and analysis that you trust...that is why you are here.


Flood Risk Next 6 Weeks

This is a heads up risk evaluation based off the data sets below, that the return of riverine flooding is a high chance along pockets of the divide and a broad low to moderate risk for the eastern and southeast inland of the nation. This forecast may be also extended into QLD and outback NT and WA later this week.

Now to all the data sets.


SHORT TERM

Short term rainfall now fully transitioning to that convective rainfall associated with troughs of low pressure dancing through the country, from west to east, but then once they hit the east, they encounter a blocking pattern with a high over the Tasman Sea, which is also pumping in moisture and feeding these troughs but not allowing the troughs to move through, so keeping the showers, thunderstorms and humid weather going. The weather is expected to remain unsettled over the same regions for the best part of the short term. The only areas to be drier is the west coast of WA where rainfall chances remain low.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

MEDIUM TERM

The medium term offers further troughs of low pressure developing over northern Australia with some modelling supporting low pressure to form within these troughs, bringing enhanced rainfall risks, some modelling suggesting widespread 25-50mm with some modelling supporting widespread 50-100mm and falls as high as 400mm. Caution is advised. There will be much talk and hyperbole out there about the rainfall chances and rightly so, but careful consideration and data analysis married against real time observation is necessary to bring you a well informed forecast. So seeing the data sets here with my rating system, plus the caveats in place are crucial to not only tempering your expectations BUT also making informed decisions that are right for you.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE

ENSEMBLE DATA

This is the data set to watch, we have been using this for weeks and now we are seeing some better agreement. Remember the CMC was the cheese that stood all alone, where it was wet wet wet and the other models were not, now we are seeing the short term forecasts reflect the CMC data, while maintaining additional wet conditions during the coming 2 weeks. So I think these broader data sets are much more useful.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - HIGH CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

LONG TERM

More of the same as explained in your state based video - I really don't want to HYPE it up, because it is data and weather and it will do what it will do, but prepare for active weather with a moderate to high chance of flooding as explained at the top of the page.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE.

This is significant rainfall that continues to build as the nation gets warmer, mixing with the higher humidity and lower air pressure, get ready for a lot of weather, especially the further east you go.

The single control member also very wet in line with the ensemble data, again keep an eye on the Indian Ocean influence in the coming 4-6 weeks as the negative phase begins to wane.

More weather details coming up from 7am EDT tomorrow including your Harvest Update Outlook and Farm Focus Report looking at the weather issues complicating the Harvest coming up.



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