MODELLING ON THE RAINFALL FOR NSW AND QLD

Here are the latest numbers for the eastern states as we move into a very wet spell.


I want to caution you from using the apps in these situations as you will see, there are many parameters that the models DO NOT factor into these situations that will lead to heavier rainfall in some areas than is advertised and the opposite is true for some getting less than advertised.


REMEMBER THIS FROM LAST WEEK - UPPER LEVEL LOW = WEATHERMAN WOES!


NEW SOUTH WALES

18Z GFS - Rainfall Next 5 days

Bullseye of 650mm over parts of the Illawarra with this system and widespread falls extending inland but the inland rainfall is high degree of uncertainty and will change from run to run. Note that Young picked up 20mm overnight where models had 2mm there. So this surprise rainfall for some and some areas missing out on the proposed severe weather is expected to continue under these circumstances. Not apologsing, it is just the nature of what we are dealing with and that will continue to be the case through early next week in the presence of a new surface low offshore and upper low over QLD.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Next 5 days

Widespread heavy rainfall expected in the southeast with an upper low and that extends through the southern and central inland, a very strong rainfall gradient is present leading to the uncertainty, especially through northern NSW. I am leaving rainfall totals higher than what some of the modelling is showing to capture the uncertainty surrounding the placement of a surface low along the coast early next week but numbers will bounce around a fair bit on all forecasts from all agencies. It is the nature of the system.

12Z CMC - Rainfall Next 5 days

Rainfall spread a lot more wide in the latest CMC hence why I am drawing in more rainfall for northern NSW and along the coast with a high degree of uncertainty.

18Z ICON- Rainfall Next 5 days

Bullseye of 550mm over the Illawarra and heavy rainfall extending through portions of the southern and central inland with rainfall totals coming down for the northern inland but still above average rainfall for these areas. The rainfall gradient tight and volatile in response to the developing low pressure offshore and over QLD.

QUEENSLAND

18Z GFS - Rainfall Next 5 Days

Rainfall contracts into QLD but note the tail over the NT still to come over the next 12 hours with further above average rainfall. Rainfall about the coast could exceed 300mm over the weekend and into early next week as the upper low moves through, leading to flood problems in areas hit hard earlier in the year.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Next 5 Days

Heavy rainfall becomes a focus on the east coast from tomorrow through early next week with flooding an issue for some areas. Modelling may be under estimating the rainfall potential along the coast. Heavier rainfall could be expected over interior parts under the band as observed in the NT, models playing catch up in this region as the event is anomalous.


12Z CMC - Rainfall Next 5 Days

Sees the rainfall well over the eastern Top End and pushes that into QLD but not as heavy over the NW. Heavier falls over the east coast with flooding potential.

18Z ICON Rainfall Next 5 Days

Fairly good agreement among the models including the ICON for heavier rainfall to contract to the coast over the weekend and then intensify as the trough stands up on Monday and Tuesday in the Far East before clearing offshore mid week. Noting it does not see the rainfall over the NT very well.




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