MODEL WRAP - RAINFALL STAKES.

Many people wanting the latest details on all thing rainfall.


Here is the latest spread of model data


SHORT TERM


ICON - Rainfall next 5 days - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall is absolutely moving further east with the moisture being lifted over the eastern states this weekend, and the rainfall that falls is light to moderate at best. The better rainfall in the short term is along the NSW coast tonight and adjacent inland as expected with the upper trough and cold pool moving northeast. The SWLD should see significant rainfall on Wednesday through Thursday. The tropics are a tad too dry at this time from this model.

UKMET - Rainfall next 7 days - LOW CHANCE

Better coverage of rainfall through the east coast overnight and into Tuesday and the SWLD of WA with the front coming up over Wednesday into Thursday. This model has continually supported better connection between the moisture streaming out of the northwest into the front passing through the nation and at this stage I am not leaning with that idea, it is not impossible to see better rainfall coverage over the nation but the dynamic support is just not there at this stage. So light falls are expected.

KMA Rainfall Next 10 days - LOW CHANCE

The model like UKMET a little too wet overall. Does not verify the rainfall occurring on the east coast this evening, with moderate rainfall ongoing where there is next to no rainfall. Then the rainfall forecast for inland Australia is a little too heavy. Not impossible, as nothing is impossible with weather, but the dynamic support is just not there for that rainfall to occur

ACCESS Rainfall for next 10 days - LOW CHANCE

This again is probably a little too wet for the nation, but not impossible. The higher probabilities of reasonable rainfall is over SWLD of WA mid week and over the southeast inland with the system rolling through during the weekend. The weather over inland areas is up for debate as mentioned above, I am leaning to this being too wet and widespread in coverage of rainfall, but again not impossible.

CMC Rainfall Next 10 days - HIGH CHANCE

This is probably a little closer to the truth, with the moisture streaming out of the north and into a front moving east. There will be elevated showers and storms over inland parts of SA and into the NT. Rainfall of any substantial nature is falling over the east coast and over the SWLD during mid week. Then how much of that moisture comes southeast from the north and connects with the front remains to be seen, but this verifies my thoughts about there being not a great connection between the front and the moisture until it hits the southeast inland.

GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - HIGH CHANCE

This is the latest GFS that is hot off the press and remains largely unchanged with the rainfall over the east coast tonight and Tuesday, clearing Wednesday. The next front coming through the SWLD brings a burst of rain and storm mid week. The front then slides southeast and drifts into the southeast inland with areas of rainfall, more widespread over Victoria and southern inland NSW. The remainder is dry for now.

Climate update due tomorrow and another look at the medium term and much more! Have a great night.