MODEL WRAP - RAINFALL FOR THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM.

The modelling has been quite divergent in the medium term regarding the rainfall output from troughs moving in from the west and northwest.


In the short term the weather is well modelled but there is a sneaky system trying to form on the east coast of NSW, not well supported but there have been some hints on the modelling today. It is a low chance still at this time.


Medium term, the moisture does start to increase over the nation, but can it connect with a lifting mechanism? Some models suggest this, but in weather forecasting, of course, each model has rainfall breaking out in different regions.


Lets take a look


ICON - Next 5 days

The dry trend continues for the foreseeable future for much of the nation, apart from the SWLD which will see widespread rainfall Thursday, this extending into the southeast part of the nation over the weekend, though ICON is not as aggressive as other models. So the models will continue to refine on this feature, with the amount of cold air it could upgrade further for southeast areas. Dry weather through the weekend elsewhere.

Euro Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall from this model has been all over the place with soaking rainfall over the SWLD remaining the only consistent feature from run to run. The east coast system, which had heavy rainfall over the eastern inland, has now pushed it onto the coast with lighter falls inland, but again, it is a low confidence forecast and once again, this will change again by the morning. Dry for much of the inland under persistent high pressure.

UKEMT Rainfall for the next 7 days

Less moisture for the east, with no rainfall over the coming week and does not even have the system like Euro for the east. Rainfall for the SWLD look fairly good odds for Thursday otherwise, the moisture over the north will be the only area of precipitation next week with the remainder of the nation under high pressure and dry air until early next week.

ACCESS Rainfall for the next 10 days

Access continues to show widespread light rainfall over the nation for the coming 10 days, but this is the model expressing uncertainty in the medium term. The high confidence rainfall again for the SWLD of WA and through western Tasmania and then it is a dog's breakfast.

CMC Rainfall next 10 days

Widespread rainfall for the southwest of WA with a trough passing through mid week, could be rather productive. The system will roll across the south of the nation and then rain itself out over the open waters. Then another trough and front will pass through the southeast of the nation over the weekend, and like the Euro of this morning, wants to wrap this system into a low pressure system with heavy rainfall over VIC and widespread showers through the eastern third of NSW. Then the scattered showers and storms return over northern Australia during next week while the west turns dry.

KMA Rainfall next 12 days.

This model is showing similar spread of rainfall to ACCESS, though it does show the rain in the SWLD with moderate to heavy falls. Then a strong cold front passes over the southeast this weekend with widespread showers and this model also supports a low forming over the eastern portions of the nation with showers and storms increasing for QLD and NSW and areas of rain for the southeast. Moisture likely on this model to be lifted by inland troughs extending back through to the tropics with scattered showers and storms. The northwest remains dry.

I will have more on the rainfall potential next week tomorrow and a look in the morning weather update video and a medium term forecast coming up at mid morning. Check out the severe weather season update as well as October is the start of severe weather season and it is important to keep up to date with these forecasts coming into the harvest as well.