MODEL WRAP AND THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL - PM EDITION

A lot of interest in the events of next week so lets take a look at the latest details on the full model suite tonight.


FLOOD RISK AREAS

No change from yesterday but based off the latest ensemble data tonight, I may need to adjust the watch area tomorrow.

RAINFALL ANOMALIES NEXT 2 WEEKS

Updated this morning can refer to the Medium Term Forecast for more.

SHORT TERM


ICON - Rainfall Next 5 Days - HIGH CHANCE

Rainfall connected to a front through the southeast tomorrow light and patchy though a few storms are possible with brief heavier rainfall for VIC and TAS. The weather turns dry through the weekend nationwide. Sunday afternoon showers and storms break out over parts of the SWLD with showers running up the NSW coast and into QLD by Monday. An inland trough over QLD will promote showers and thunderstorms developing Monday and Tuesday with the moisture streaming south into VIC and NSW ahead of a trough which will start to show in the coming days.

UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - HIGH CHANCE

Very similar in timing to ICON with rainfall placement. The rain over the SWLD from Sunday and over the east coast from Monday and then over the eastern inland just outside of this window. This model is a little slower than ICON.

LONG TERM


ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

Rainfall widespread through the nation after the period above, you can see heavy falls over the east, the bias strong for the most productive weather over the GDR and points west through NSW and VIC. Rainfall through QLD carries a low chance as this is the only model that shows this, not impossible but is an outlier. The SWLD could see half a months worth of rainfall based off current guidance over the coming 10 days. The north of the nation, dry until the end of next week when showers and storms increase. This model is indicating that the falls are convective and the foundation of rainfall chances throughout the southeast and east will be thunderstorms so rainfall distribution is looking increasingly uneven.

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Following on from above, the models bring the low and trough from WA into the eastern inland, lifting the moisture in place from QLD, through NSW into VIC with moderate to heavy falls about the east. Some localised flooding is possible in the northeast of VIC and southeast of NSW west of the divide. Also light falls for much of southern SA and southern QLD. Dry weather through the interior with humidity increasing over the north with showers increasing. A secondary system brings follow up falls into WA and then that system moves east to be near SA border by day 10.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Again next week, the trough in the east which sits over VIC and snakes through Central NSW and into QLD bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms with falls of 50-70mm along the divide and pockets of the slopes. Moderate rainfall through much of VIC. Sadly light falls for SA with the trough east. The SWLD has one system this weekend and another system mid next week with a deeper moisture profile coming from the Indian Ocean. A few showers and thunderstorms over the tropics from time to time.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Very good agreement on rainfall placement for the nation as per the above analysis. Coverage of rainfall a little more widespread over the NT and through western QLD. Note the moisture offshore the WA coast sitting back through the Central Indian Ocean. Models really ramping up that possibly coming in for the second week of October.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Good agreement for the coming 10 days as per above. The GFS has another system coming through in weaker fashion as opposed to it's previous runs meaning some further rainfall coming through SA into the eastern inland of NSW and VIC producing light to moderate rainfall. Showers and storms increasing through the tropics into the first week of October. Some areas over the southeast inland could see up to 1.5 months of rainfall next week on current guidance. About a months worth of rain in the SWLD of WA.

ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The ensemble data - all members looking very wet over the east in the coming 10 days with a drop off into the 10-16 range and rainfall turning more widespread on the east coast. The tropics turning active from early October and increasing later in the first week of that month. The west dries out from the first week of October.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

As per the GFS good agreement for rainfall to be heavy over the east with a bias over NSW and VIC. Southern QLD could see a heavier rainfall event in the first week of October off the back of this stormy outbreak. More rainfall comes through through SWLD of WA through the first week October and spreads into SA with moderate falls. Tropics not as active as GFS.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - HIGH CHANCE

Most all members are in good agreement about bringing widespread soaking spring rainfall into VIC, NSW and QLD next week with thunderstorms embedded in the rain areas leading to heavy rainfall. Flooding is a risk. The west will see two systems in the coming 10 days with a months worth of rain for some parts of the SWLD. The tropics turning active through October with some moderate rainfall.

The flood risk is increasing for eastern Australia to kick off October.