MODEL WRAP AND THE LACK OF RAINFALL....HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?

Lets take a look at the latest suite of modelling for the coming short and medium term.


SHORT TERM

ICON - Next 5 Days - HIGH CHANCE

How about a big bag of nothing away from the southeast. Dry weather nationally from mid week once we lose the system over the southeast and east coast.

UKMET - Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Probably a bit too much precipitation over the outback of WA otherwise good agreement on the rainfall over the southeast early in the period, then dry nationwide from mid week under high pressure.

LONGER TERM

CMC - Next 10 days - MODERATE CHANCE

Like the short term, dry weather for much of the nation until we see an easterly flow develop later in the weekend, introducing showers for the east coast. The northern tropics become dry and hot this week before the humidity returns over the weekend. Then the next system develops over SWLD of WA with a band of showers and storms from early next week. That moisture increase over the nation will see rainfall become more widespread for the end of the month into early October.

KMA - Rainfall next 12 Days - LOW CHANCE

Too much precipitation over the WA outback renders this forecast confidence low, but the idea is the same, rainfall over the southeast in the coming 48hrs, then that system moves east and off the NSW coast during mid week. Moisture returns during the latter part of the weekend over NSW and QLD as onshore winds redevelop with high pressure parks itself over the Tasman Sea. Showers likely to develop. And good agreement with other models with the SWLD likely to pick up on showers and storms with a trough and front on the approach in around a week. The tropics also become soupy by the last week of September.

CMC Ensemble - Next 15 days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Better coverage of that rainfall from late month into early October with the next wave of moisture and troughs over the nation, the focus/bias clearly over the east of NSW and through VIC as well as SWLD of WA. Perhaps some nicer rainfall coming into SA too.

GFS Ensemble - Next 16 days - MODERATE CHANCE.

The rainfall likely to increase in coverage but the better coverage is clearly over the southeast and east of the nation. Note the tropics returning active by later this month into October. The weather over the southwest of WA could turn stormy with the first heat trough of the season from later this month.

Euro Ensemble - Control Member - Rainfall next 14 days.

This single member from the Euro showing the potential for moisture to be picked up by troughs and bringing pockets of heavier rainfall through WA and SA but there is a bias for rainfall to focus itself in the easterly winds over QLD and NSW too, in onshore flow. The tropics should turn more active than what is being advertised here.

More weather coming up tomorrow from 6am.