A look now at the full suite of models from the short through to long term, lots riding on this rainfall for many people for different reasons.
There is excellent agreement across all models about the spread of rainfall through the nation over the course of this week. The only issues are where the ignition is for thunderstorms Tuesday, how far west does that occur? Does it occur further west through VIC and NSW or further east? That will be determined by Tuesday morning. At this time there is good agreement on the rainfall spread in the short term between ICON and UKMET. Lighter falls back towards SA and moderate rainfall over WA. Patchy falls associated with tropical downpours.
ICON - Rainfall Next 5 Days - HIGH CHANCE
UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE (more convective in nature and showing more of a storm outbreak than widespread rainfall.)
The models are again in excellent agreement as we sweep through the week into the weekend with one system taking 5 days to move out of the east and then a follow up system passing in from SWLD of WA later this week into the weekend, making it into the southeast and east by this time next week. Another follow up system also looks to approach the SWLD later next weekend which could sweep more rainfall into the first week of October. Some models have heavier falls than others and this will continue to bounce around given the convection involved, but most areas on and west of the divide in NSW and north of the divide in VIC should see a months worth of rain. Moderate rainfall possible for parts of SA and SWLD of WA. Moderate to heavy falls possible later this week over southern QLD with the trough passing through with severe weather possible. All models carry moderate confidence with not one suggesting anything outside of the possibility.
CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE
ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE (note the heavy rainfall over NE VIC in excess of 150mm in some areas - also the storm tracks are identifiable through this week)
EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE
KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE (Note the storm tracks again)
GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - More analysis can be found in the state based forecasts - MODERATE CHANCE
ENSEMBLE DATA - LONGER TERM
The data has been very strong in keeping the wet bias over the south and east during the coming 2 weeks, the broader member sets in very good agreement across the the 3 model sets. Some members in the GFS have double the amounts advertised and 1/3 of the Euro models are carrying more rainfall for SA and VIC, and again for NSW in the second week of October. Rainfall also increases over the north during October with that moisture moving south. QLD will see further showery periods throughout the outlook period in onshore winds.
GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.
CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE
Note the moisture extending back through Central Australia into QLD - something to watch this week. Higher rainfall over the southeast of NSW and northeast of VIC.
EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE
More weather coming up tomorrow with another update on the weather this week, storm charts, severe weather charts and your rainfall charts as well plus much more. I better get some rest!