MODEL REVIEW AND RAINFALL

Another look at the evening data and my analysis with probabilistic label on each of these


SHORT TERM - 5 DAYS

ICON

Rainfall is limited to the east coast in onshore winds and moisture may be lifted tomorrow and Tuesday on and east of the divide through NSW with a trough. Showers and a thunderstorm over the Top End with moisture increasing and colder upper levels supporting storm activity. A weak inland trough over WA will trigger patchy rain. A cold front approaching the west will bring a burst of rain and strong winds on Wednesday.

HIGH CHANCE.

LONGER TERM

KMA - Rainfall 12 days

Has been showing a lot more moisture drifting from the northwest through to the southeast with a moisture surge being propelled from the Indian Ocean mid to late week ahead of the front coming out of WA. The timing of this front, it's position and scale is completely atrocious in relation to the moisture streaming east hence the patchy rainfall for SA but better rainfall further east over VIC and NSW. Another surge of moisture may follow this and be picked up by a follow up front over the coming weekend into next week.

MODERATE CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall next 10 days

Limited moisture being drawn into the front coming over WA mid week. The front itself is also weaker hence less rainfall for SWLD of WA. Note the moisture extending from the tropics south through to the southeast. This model has the front lifting some of that moisture into more organised areas of rain over VIC and NSW. But this I think is running a little too dry at the moment, but the trend is continuing to show more rainfall over NSW and VIC and less for SA. That idea seems to be gathering pace.

MODERATE CHANCE

ACCESS Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall again similar to other longer term models showing a bias of rainfall shifting eastwards from later this week into the weekend, though the front is a little stronger and connects with moisture over the southeast producing much more widespread rainfall. The moisture extends back over the interior and is picked up by a pre frontal trough and inland trough to produce that rainfall coverage. The coverage of rainfall through the interior may be a little too heavy right now. But the idea is similar to other modelling.

LOW CHANCE

UKMET - Rainfall next 7 days

Similar to ACCESS in the coverage of rainfall later in the week but again, probably a little too heavy for outback areas. While it is not impossible it is just not well supported at this time. Yes there will be moisture streaming south and east, but the timing of the front will have to improve somewhat to produce these rainfall totals.

LOW CHANCE

Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is very limited with weaker systems and dry air right around the nation. I do think this is running far too dry for the outlook period and I am not quite aligning myself with this outlook at this time.

LOW CHANCE

LATEST GFS - Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall is again still splitting the difference between the very dry Euro and the wetter ACCESS had the same idea of the rainfall stacking up on the western face of the GDR in NSW and rain more widespread through VIC. Note the moisture sticking around northern Australia. Rainfall in WA's interior is associated with an upper trough.

MODERATE CHANCE

I will have another look at the rain event in the morning and start issuing outlooks for the rain band itself from tomorrow night with the model analysis.