MODEL MADNESS CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AUSTRALIA.

But the signals for rainfall are looking promising as we go through May.


Model analysis for Friday 30th of May 2021.


Euro model 12z run for the country looked promising for rainfall from two events over the course of the next 10 days, mainly through western and eastern parts of the country.


But note the in feed of moisture through the central interior. Perhaps the jet stream is being infused with moisture as we go through May. That could bode well for the rainfall odds for SA.


By contrast this evenings Euro run continues that signal but also trying to fill the gap on rainfall chances for SA. Something to watch over the weekend.

GFS this morning was much more aggressive in the east coast event next week with heavy rainfall for the southeast coast of NSW and eastern VIC with that surface feature deepening offshore.


It does have heavier rainfall for the west coast of the nation too with a stronger low pressure system there but the jet aloft is weaker through the central interior into SA so rainfall totals are lean


Also had heavier rainfall with a stronger easterly flow over the coming days along the east coast.

The 00z evening run of the GFS has a much broader rain event for SW WA with a deep low pressure system passing over the region, stepped up the falls quite nicely down there, will keep an eye on trends, as that system could become slow moving if a new high well south of the state cradles the feature.


The rainfall in the east is largely unchanged. More of a convective look to the rainfall through SE SA and western and central VIC, meaning scattered, random slow moving showers and thunderstorms, with small hail possible Monday. Some areas will get 25mm and others down the road get next to nothing. That is on current guide.


GFS also wants to bring heavy rainfall deeper into the southeast inland of NSW and eastern VIC, with falls approaching 200mm in some spots with moderate rainfall up to Sydney.

CMC has been the outlier most of this period with it's own idea of having the upper low move rapidly to about northern NSW and then slow down to a crawl, seeing the rainfall further north and east, and lighter falls for southern parts of the nation.


It also this morning had more robust frontal weather coming into SA but leaves the west coast largely drier than the other two models.


For this reason I am discounting the model based upon it's positional issues and its high degree of variability.

By contrast, tonight's update of the rainfall for the country is different, more rainfall further south through central and southern NSW into Victoria with the low pressure system now being analysed in line with the other two models.


It also has now recognised the moisture sitting off the west coast which will drive large amount of cloud and rain into the region. I expect numbers to rise out west on this model.


Overall I would say out of the three models, this one is the lowest credibility.

So with that information my forecasts remain largely unchanged due to the low confidence in models from run to run, so I will update again on Sunday as we get better clarity in real time.


Rainfall for the next 10 days.


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