MODEL MADNESS AND THE RETURN OF RAINFALL.

The lack of real time data being fed back into the models is showing itself again on the short and in particular medium term modelling, less planes means less data, so while the nation's east is in lockdown, we will remain at the mercy of this weakness in weather monitoring and forecasting.


Lets take a look at the madness tonight and see whether we can pin down a trend in the models.


Moisture Watch Week 2

This is the period where we will see a shift in conditions, models dragging moisture south and east through the nation from the tropics, but where it is lifted into productive rainfall events remains to be seen.

GFS Next 10 days

We covered this off in the state based forecasts but once again the model is increasing the coverage of showers over the east coast in the new week with colder air combining with onshore winds, it does remain to be seen whether a low forms as the ingredients are there. The west in the short term, a good drink tomorrow, moisture over the NT increases this weekend into next week with showers, most extensive about the north and east coast. Some of that moisture may be projected west through WA next week leading to rainfall chances increasing for the nation mid month onwards.

KMA - Rainfall next 10 days

Again as per this morning, has a good coverage of moisture, but resulting in widespread light falls, which I find somewhat hard to believe, but does acknowledge the rainfall chances increasing from mid month. In the short term, has a good drop for SWLD of WA and showery weather this weekend for the southeast coastal areas of VIC and SA, but not much inland until later in the run, where there are flare ups all over the nation.

CMC Rainfall next 10 days

Note the large rainfall event for the eastern inland with the cut off upper low following a change over the southeast. This model is reflecting what the Euro had yesterday. If this was to occur, it would be early next week, but very low chance. Otherwise good rain for the SWLD of WA in the coming 24hrs, the majority of the nation is quiet for the coming week until a front approaches SA and VIC later next week into the weekend.

Euro Rainfall next 10 days

Covered this off in your respective state based evening update, but very dry for the coming 10 days throughout the inland, in the short term, reasonable rainfall expected for the SWLD of WA. Then a developing trough and cold front may tap into moisture for the southeast next weekend. The rain event over the east as I suspected in my updates, vanished, but it could be back in the morning, stay tuned.

UMMET Rainfall for the next 7 days.

The model depicts that drier trend continuing inland of the coast in most states for the coming 7 days under the dry airmass. Reasonable rainfall for the SWLD of WA and western TAS in the short term with decaying cold fronts and moisture to return over the northern tropics with showers developing. Otherwise things may shift later next week into the following weekend.

ICON - Next 7 days

A very dry look with high pressure dominating the south and east, with major rainfall event through this period, expected tomorrow over the SWLD. This model suggests the dry air will be dominating with a large high aloft to work together to keep skies clear and temperature above average over much of the inland.