MODEL MADNESS AND ALL THINGS RAINFALL

The model madness from run to run continues in the data sets tonight, I am sticking closer to the ensemble data which you can see below but I think it is important to track all agencies and see if we can find some common thread amongst them.


Lets take a look


SHORT TERM

The short term is quite tricky at the moment in terms of forecasting rainfall and severe weather potential. A low pressure system is expected to form along a trough on Thursday and this is where the most concentrated widespread rainfall is expected to occur. Now models place the rainfall with this feature offshore the southeast of Australia, some bring it over SA into VIC and then TAS, which would enhance storm activity over NSW. The bottom line is, if you are living over southeast Australia, your forecast will continue to change. So stay tuned. It is low confidence. Otherwise the southwest of the nation carries a showery burst tomorrow with a low passing through, the tropics carry a higher confidence of rainfall with the usual shower and thunderstorm activity, however that activity could produce above average rainfall. The storms over QLD will wind down over southern inland areas and about the coast before returning from this weekend.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - Note the low pressure track south of the nation later this week. LOW CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

MEDIUM TERM

Moisture is expected to pool over the northern half of the nation over the weekend into next week as another high pressure system moves through from west to east. Now the differences in where that high pressure belt sets up is also playing havoc in terms of the timing of the rainfall and moisture sweeping south out of the tropics into the southeast and east once again. So expect more wild fluctuation in the forecasts due to this factor. The dam wall will eventually burst and a rain event will develop from the northwest through southeast of the nation to kick off November, how large that event is remains to be seen but it does have significant potential to be disruptive. Otherwise the moisture over the north of the nation is expected to deepen.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE - ENSEMBLE DATA WETTER

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE. - ENSEMBLE DATA WETTER

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE - ENSEMBLE DATA WETTER.

ENSEMBLE DATA

This is your more reliable and consistent data sets and they are showing the theme of the moisture running northwest to southeast across the nation throughout this period, however the finer points about the timing, location of troughs/low pressure and intensity of rainfall in one given location is where the deterministic data comes into play but right now, it is not useful information, so we are keeping the forecasts broad, general and will wait to see more information before pulling the trigger and drawing in higher confidence rainfall charts for your region.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - HIGH CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE.

The wet signal into December continues and this will form the focus of my update tomorrow for the coming 6 weeks and a look at November once again. A sensitive time for many farmers.

More details tomorrow including a Harvest Update and much more - expect the forecasts to keep changing in this low confidence environment.