MODEL DIVERGENCE MAKING FORECASTING TRICKY NEXT WEEK

The weather in southeast is looking active, but exactly who gets what remains to be settled, so the area of risk of severe thunderstorms bringing flash flooding to the inland of NSW, through much of VIC and eastern SA is broad.


Along the coast, the risk of additional heavy rainfall remains high tonight and tomorrow for NE NSW but there may also be another batch of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding for SE NSW. Coastal areas in the southeast are saturated and will respond quickly to heavy rainfall.


I will have more to say on this tomorrow, I want the east coast rainfall to resolve a little more to see how that impacts the system coming into SA tomorrow and the east from Monday.


So review the different solutions below, you can see poor agreement across the short and medium term.



ICON Rainfall - Next 8 Days

Can track the heavy rainfall in the coming days along the coast, up over the NE of NSW tomorrow and easing from Monday and then developing over the southeast mid week.

Inland storms being forecast further west through NSW and VIC and into eastern SA if this is correct.

CMC Rainfall - Next 10 Days

Heavy rainfall over the NE of NSW and will likely run down the NSW coast this week coming. Inland areas over VIC and NSW could see locally heavy rainfall with showers and storms and the east of SA could also see locally heavy falls with a few thunderstorms.

GFS Rainfall - Next 10 Days

The latest GFS has torrential falls continuing for the NE of NSW and SE QLD with the most amplified falls in the short term but returning again at the end of the period. GFS has heavier rainfall with the event from Monday through Thursday and amplifies a cold front over VIC and NSW with heavy rainfall developing later this week ahead of a cooler and drier period.

Euro Rainfall - Next 10 Days

Another round of heavy rainfall for the SE of QLD and NE NSW with that weather likely to ease in the coming day with showers to follow. Heavy rainfall developing over the southeast of NSW mid week. Inland areas, mixed odds but numbers are coming up for SA, we could see a western progression of the rainfall spread next week which will be watched.

More coming up tomorrow.

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