MEDIUM TERM WEATHER - MORE RAINFALL FOR THE EAST AND MORE HEAT FOR THE WEST?

That seems to be a reasonable consensus on the model data at the moment, however there are some models that want to bring in a pattern flip which would be very welcome for the east that is for sure, but the signals are not strong for that. With that said, I am likely to keep the forecast unchanged for the east with more rain and storms for the medium term, taking us through the first week of December.


Flooding issues will remain a high risk for days ahead, it will not change into the medium term I am afraid over the eastern states. For the west, it looks dry and hot for most of the next 2 weeks, you could not be any more different weather wise.


The cause, persistent high pressure being anchored well to the south which is expected to stay in place for the remainder of the month and into early December.


Lets take a look at the latest - once again there is not much change for you lot out in WA and after the low in SA it is also pretty quiet with a stagnant pressure pattern. The main action does look to occur through the east where severe weather issues could lead to high degree of disruption.

FORECAST

Moisture Watch Next Week - December 1-8 2021

The moisture is expected to recycle through the east once again as persistent easterly winds remain, so a continuation of the mild to warm and humid air leading to widespread rainfall and thunder is likely. The tropics in routine weather now and likely to remain under deep moisture with that tropical airmass likely to run down the west of the nation into a heat trough over WA leading to inland showers and thunderstorms. The remainder of the south and southwest remain impacted to be the ridge but humidity may be felt without any precipitation at this time.

Rainfall Next Week - December 1-8 2021

Rainfall remains biased over the north and the east and heavier the further north and east you go through the nation. The west of the nation looking drier however numbers may start to increase as the heat trough deepens and the moisture from the tropical north is drawn into the feature. SA may remain quiet rainfall wise for now but rainfall might begin to creep into the east and north with moisture approaching from all sides. The tropics near normal and no change to that signal.

Rainfall Anomalies- November 24- December 8 2021

Well above average rainfall chances continue for large parts of the nation though the bias out west remains on the drier side which is normal and should be expected at this time of year. The persistent above average rainfall signal is likely to persist for much of December for the east and increase over the north.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week- December 1-8 2021

With the excessive rainfall and cloud cover, onshore winds, the east is cooler than normal, however the weather for the western two thirds of the nation may end up being warmer than normal under a persistent ridge to the south and the drier air being trapped over the west of the nation with warm air aloft. Once the rainfall arrives with more regularity over the north, the weather will cool down from those heatwave levels over the NT and WA.

DATA - More analysis can be found in the video above.


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Values- Next 16 Days

18z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

These numbers will continue to chop and change based off the pressure pattern above.

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

More details coming up in your state based forecasts this afternoon and evening.




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