MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK - TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER IS BACK AND RAINFALL CHANCES TOO.

The seasons are shifting and we are seeing that reflected in the weather observed over the nation, the temperature roller coaster ride is underway as is the increase of moisture over the northern parts of the nation and now the emergence of inland troughs/low pressure systems showing up on modelling in the medium term. But pinning down specifics remains near on impossible, but the signals are there, which is a start.


Lets just say that there is no blocking high pressure over the nation, but some areas have been under persistent ridging in the past week which is also normal during times of seasonal transitions.


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FORECAST

Moisture Watch this week - September 8-15 2021

The moisture throughout the nation is expected to remain fairly coastal and is unchanged from yesterday, you can see the addition of the rainfall potential via low level moisture wrapping into the eastern inland of NSW and southeast QLD with a low off the coast but not all modelling is on board with this. The tropics are expected to turn more humid over the weekend into next week with an increase of rainfall slowly drifting southwards. Dry weather expected for inland areas.

Moisture Watch next week - September 16-23 2021

Moisture is becoming more widespread on the longer term modelling, you can refer to my notes on that in the video.

Rainfall next 10 days - September 8-18 2021

Low confidence forecast for the eastern seaboard with the wild card system developing. Dry for inland areas for the ~10 days.

Rainfall Medium Term - September 18-24 2021

The moisture from the north finally begins to move further south with the potential for inland troughs picking up that moisture and introducing showers and thunderstorms about.

Rainfall Anomalies - Next 2 weeks

Again you see the brown shading over the southeast but once again that is mainly for this week where it will be rainfall free and what is usually a productive month of rainfall for the southeast, falls this week will still be lower than normal. Above average rainfall over the north in line with the early build up. Heavy rainfall with a trough and front passing over the southwest this week could see some areas record falls over 40mm.

Temperature Anomalies this week - September 8-15 2021

Warmer weather over much of the southeast and eastern inland of the nation will sharply turn colder with a southwesterly change spreading north during Sunday and into early next week, then the weather turns warmer once again over the west and that spreads east.

Temperatures Anomalies next week - September 16-23 2021

Warmer and more humid air likely to spread south and east through the middle of the month.

More in your state based updates this evening and again I will have another wrap of the models and the potential for that wet weather over inland areas of the nation waiting for rainfall, not wanting rainfall, and everyone in between after 9pm.