MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK - DRY FOR THIS WEEK BUT THE PATTERN FLIPS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

As expected this week, beyond the wintry shift over the coming 24-48hrs for large parts of the nation's south and east, the weather will likely turn back to more seasonal values by Friday and into the weekend, the seasonal weather is anticipated post the last front over the southeast before a spell of above average temperatures.


Moisture is expected to return from the weekend over the west of the nation and across the eastern seaboard with troughs likely to be in phase over these areas, lifting rainfall chances for the end of the month into October.


Lets take a look

FORECAST - Refer to Video for more analysis

Moisture Watch - This Week - September 20-27 2021

Dry air dominates but moisture will creep back in over the southwest, east and run along the northern coastline.

Moisture Watch - Next Week - September 28-October 4 2021

Lots of moisture streaming through the nation makes pinning down a forecast area to watch very difficult with a broad area of instability on the table across the continent.

Rainfall - This Week - September 20-27 2021

Dry dry dry this week away from the southeast. Rain creeps back over the east and southwest through the weekend into this time next week.

Rainfall - Next Week - September 28-October 4 2021

This forecast is a blend of all models and will change, heads up for rainfall returning to the east.

Rainfall Anomalies - Next 2 weeks - September 20-October 4 2021

The wetter signal overrides the dry air this week, with rainfall coming back fast in the global modelling, we now just have to wait to see who gets what, that forecast will refine through this week into the weekend, so keep up to date.

Areas to watch - Current confidence in forecast. If you are not ringed in an area, then you carry an even confidence level.

Temperature Anomalies - This Week - September 20-27 2021

Dry air dominating this week with cooler air filtering through the east and south.

Temperature Anomalies - Next Week - September 28-October 4 2021

Pattern flip and atmosphere change, where the dry air is eroded and the surface pattern turns the east warm and the west cooler.

DATA - Refer to the video for full analysis

18Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks - Wetter as we go is the theme for the coming 2-6 weeks.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Next 4 Weeks

12Z Euro - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks

18Z GFS - Temperature Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

I am waiting on more data sets for the Indian Ocean and will have the latest on that in the state based video update coming up later this afternoon - just want to wait for the full set to come in.




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