MEDIUM TERM - LOOKING AT THE END OF 2022 IN GREATER DETAIL.

The weather is trending wetter as we go for the remainder of 2022, and while many are taking a break from the weather and not thinking about anything other than celebrating, I think keeping one eye on the severe weather risks related to thunderstorms and the increasing rainfall spread over the nation with higher humidity may be still needed for those with Summer crops in the ground.


While Summer harvest for some crops is looking good, the threat of severe weather across the north and northeast of the nation is looking moderate to high through the festive period with thunderstorms, which cause some issues around quality of produce.


The period leading into early 2022 is expected to be quite wet I suspect, avid weather watchers would have seen the last 2-3 runs of the GFS showing the increased rainfall risk over pockets of the nation with tropical moisture spilling south into troughs, that is when we transition from the hit and miss severe thunderstorm activity to more widespread rainfall with heavy falls beginning to come back to the forecasts for some locations.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Moisture Watch - December 22-29 2021

Moisture is expected to increase through northern parts of the nation and then descend gradually south and east with favourable upper level winds. The weather over the interior is expected to remain hot but the humidity values will continue to increase so the dry airmass will be overrun as we lead into Christmas and then increase through to New Years. Easterly winds will redevelop for QLD and NSW with the SAM trending positive. The weather out west remaining drier through the period with ridging close by, deflecting the moisture towards the northeast and east of the SWLD for now.

Rainfall Next Week - December 22-29 2021

Rainfall as mentioned will be set by where the troughs and moisture align, and the favourable areas are expected to be the western interior of the nation, stretching over northern Australia and then into the eastern inland of the nation. Showers and thunderstorms most afternoons and evenings are expected to develop and spread further south through this period. By the end of the period, a more widespread rainfall event is expected to develop from the northwest through to the central areas and over the eastern inland with moderate to heavy falls possible at times in this zone. The drier weather will be found over the southwest of the nation where easterly winds

Rainfall Anomalies - December 22-29 2021

Rainfall anomalies remain above normal for parts of the outback and stretching into the southeast once again, after a nice drier spell of the past week and this week. The weather is expected to shift wetter as we go through the outlook period. The weather for the west, drier and that drier bias, though marginal and within seasonal expectations, will spread into SA. The weather over the north, with the lack of activity at the moment, will be classified as below average, however rainfall is returning in the back of the year and this could offset the drier bias.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - December 22-29 2021

The weather over the nation is very warm to hot and expected to remain this way until we get to Christmas, then there are signals that the temperatures may come down as the moisture and low pressure deepens over northern Australia, allowing for more cloud cover and more widespread rainfall developing across the nation.

DATA - Please refer to the video.

18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Running through the drier model shows you the best case solution for those in the east and southeast who need dry weather, but be aware, that I am leaning away from this solution to wetter solutions. How wet, that remains to be seen, but refer to the update after 9pm tonight for further details.

18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

More details in the video - this model is running too dry in the medium term.

18z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

This is the drier model out of the three.

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

This is aligned with Euro and has much more wet weather to unfold over the north and east. The heavier rainfall is expected to become more widespread.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Note the moisture and rainfall more widespread through the medium term and this is the correct solution on the board.

More details coming up in the state based forecasts with more specific details for you and the run into Christmas.

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