MEDIUM TERM FORECASTING - DO WE SEE ANY OPPORTUNITY OF A PATTERN FLIP INTO DECEMBER?

** Focussing in this product now on purely the medium term - so you will see the forecast for beyond this coming 7 days now**


The risk of severe weather is set to ease from this weekend over the southeast and extend north as a drier airmass develops. But this is conditional on how far north the ridge to the south extends. Can it bump out the humidity to the tropics? Or will the ridge be further south, allowing easterly winds to continue and keep the moisture in place including rainfall and thunderstorm activity? These questions are likely to remain unanswered for about the next 2-3 days so use this product and the model and rainfall analysis nightly at 9pm EDT.


For the northern tropics, the weather is expected to remain very active through the end of the month into December which is seasonal and expected but the rainfall could be on the heavier side of normal (though some areas have not met the expectations on rainfall as I expected over the Top End).


The west, dry and hot this weekend and that could continue into next week, though evidence a deepening heat trough could see showers and thunderstorms redeveloping as moisture returns from the north and northwest. A milder southeast to southerly change may return for the west coast.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Moisture Watch Next Week - November 29th through December 6th 2021

Moisture is likely to stay in place over the north and east of the nation though evidence on the GFS as of an hour ago, a 2-3 day period of drier weather may establish over VIC and NSW before another burst of moisture arrives from about November 30/December 1 in the southeast. The northern tropics may be dealing with a few tropical waves embedded in the easterly flow. The east coast also likely to be under low level moisture producing more cloud and showers. The west may remain dry through this period.

Rainfall Next Week - November 29th through December 6th 2021

Rainfall looks a lot lighter for southern states at this time, but there have been rumblings of another deepening trough throughout the southeast mid next week, but again the confidence is not especially high. The west looks to stay dry, though there may be a few showers and thunderstorm emerge near a trough deepening over the Wheatbelt and Goldfields. The tropics looking wetter with those embedded waves racing east to west just north of the NT and QLD bringing that enhanced rainfall risks.

Rainfall Anomalies - November 29th through December 6th 2021

Rainfall anomalies are expected to remain fairly high over the north and east but near seasonal conditions expected to resume over the southern state closer to the ridge, but the confidence as mentioned not especially high.

Tropical Weather - November 29th through December 6th 2021

Watching tropical waves in the Coral Sea which will likely increase the rainfall coverage for tropical north QLD and then running through the Gulf Of Carpentaria and then running over the Arafura Sea and into the Timor Sea. These will increase storm activity. The moisture from these waves, especially the wave in the Coral Sea will likely enhance rainfall and humidity for QLD and the NT and this will move south and southeast.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - November 29th through December 6th 2021

Temperatures hot over the west though the west coast may see a reduction in temperatures. With the extra rainfall developing over the north, temperatures will begin to reduce with humidity staying really high. Over the east the below average temperatures are here to stay for now as we finish one of the cooler springs in 20 years and kick off December the same.

DATA - More can be found in the video at the top of the page.


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

More details coming up throughout the afternoon and evening.